In thinking about the future of ITS it is useful to distinguish between individual ITS projects and products and a wider vision of the transport system as a whole.
ITS projects and product deployments are developed in the context of the here and now and what is possible in terms of cutting edge research and innovative deployments. A wider view of the future transport system requires a creative and open-minded approach to respond to societal challenges and take advantage of technology developments.
Problems such as traffic congestion, global warming and environmental sustainability are forcing us to review our plans for transport. The aim is to develop and improve the efficiency, effectiveness, safety and security of the transportation system wherever we can, building on the investments made in past decades. At the same time we need to anticipate and be ready for the problems and challenges that are ahead.
A key characteristic of ITS products and services is the life-cycle of the constituent parts. Software is constantly updated and may have a lifespan of 3-5years; electronic hardware has longer shelf-life, typically between 5 and 10 years; whereas data may have more permanent value. Traditional transport infrastructure such as roads and bridges, in contrast, may have a lifespan of 50 or more years. These differences influence how new products emerge and systems evolve. Investment decisions have to be evaluated in the context of the appropriate time-scale (short-term, medium-term, long-term).
A useful starting point is the report “Technology Forward Look – Towards a Cyber-Urban Ecology”, commissioned as part of the UK Government’s “Foresight Programme” (2006). Its analysis is structured around three different time-horizons:
This covers a decade or so into the future and is based on the rollout of new but understood technology capabilities to solve problems and address opportunities.
This looks a generation ahead. Discoveries can occur at any time and redefine the sense of what is possible – working their way through to new systems and applications. Successful Horizon 2 technologies will inevitably have a disruptive effect on established Horizon 1 technologies when they are adopted. The actual course of events will depend on market take-up and government initiatives (such as roll-out of high-speed broadband).
This include known science and beyond. In this Horizon the boundaries of what is possible can change dramatically and involve predicting different future scenarios. Looking 50 years or more ahead inevitably takes us beyond the world as we know it and will involve an exploration of the paths for attaining future goals from where we are now. Scenarios are not evidence-based predictions but are a way of looking at future situations in a structured way (See Futures Methodology).
The implication of this analysis is that ITS-based systems and services developed for implementation in the short-term will probably be replaced by something that is different but most likely will include many elements that exist today. Subsequent renewals could happen in a way that is currently not technically possible and may not be based on today’s technology.
The European Union’s Joint Research Centre’s 1996 “Future of Transport Telematics Report” looked towards the future – in 2015 – of road information technologies, also known as Advanced Telematics Technologies (ATT). Its aim was to understand and forecast the trends and factors influencing the development of ATT technologies in Europe and their contribution to multimodal information systems in medium sized cities. It provides a fascinating insight on the perceptions of 20 years ago and a useful reference for where we are today.
Toyota’s Global Vision, published in 2011, provides a helpful insight into how a major player in the ITS market plans to address future mobility to achieve its goal of “zero casualties from traffic accidents” over the next 15 years – integrating smart mobility with society. Its plans cover technological developments which span Horizon 1 and Horizon 2 technologies.
Futures thinking (Horizons 2 and 3) is a structured process that throws light on options and choices by examining the challenges, setting the goals and exploring various ways of achieving those goals. There are well-established methodologies to guide the process. The outcomes may be road-maps for achieving a near-term objective (such as the automated highway), a set of medium-term research requirements to address chosen policy objectives (such as zero road accidents) or possible development strategies for achieving long-term societal goals (sustainable transport to 2050).
An example of a Horizon 3 view of the future of transport systems is provided by a study report on innovative mobility, published in 2012. The report, entitled “Exploring the Future of Intelligent Transportation Systems in the United States from 2030 to 2050 – Application of a Scenario Planning Tool” looked at how ITS and other technologies could evolve in the future to meet major societal and environmental challenges. The aim was to understand better, what types of strategies and transport investments were needed – and were most practical –for a range of future scenarios.
All organisations, whether they are commercial businesses, not for profit or government-based, have to plan for the future. If they do not they may not be serving the best interests of their shareholders and stakeholders. The crystal gazing they need to do is particularly difficult due to the speculative and apparently random nature of the real world events that impact on them. There have been many attempts at futures methodologies to deal with this type of problem. See Strategic Planning
Around the world, roads authorities and roads owners are increasingly acquiring new responsibilities to operate motorways and other major roads – over and above the traditional activities of construction and maintenance. As network operators they are in a position to influence and control how the strategic road network is used. In doing so, the operator must take account of a number of issues – requiring them to integrate wider policy objectives with current patterns of mobility and factors likely to influence future mobility. These may include social issues, new or emerging technologies, climate change, environmental sustainability, political and regulatory concerns, and macro-economic drivers. See Policy Framework Analysis
ITS has an important part to play in road network operations. Inevitably, the contribution that ITS can make is shaped – both now and in the future – by a number of dynamics that are beyond the control of the road authorities. This includes developments in communication technology (such as 4G cellular networks or bionic control – channelling brain waves), availability of data (crowd-sourcing, probe vehicles), emerging technology platforms (social media) and smart mobility (eco-mobility, connected vehicles, modal integration and seamless journeys). The key is to try to anticipate developments in technology and environmental, societal and economic challenges – to design systems that will meet future needs and requirements.
Two themes to consider when thinking about the future role of ITS in road network operations are the take-up of new technology and its lasting nature. Futures work needs to take into account the diffusion of new technology and evaluate emerging fads, fashions and products.
When looking at the future of technology, a key concept put forward by Everett M Rogers in his book The Diffusion of Innovation, is the adoption and market penetration bell curve – represented in the figure below.
Diffusion of Innovation (Source Canada – Media Technology Monitor, 2012)
The bell-curve illustrates the importance of visionaries who spot the winners and are early adopters of new technology. It also illustrates how technologies which are in widespread use may fall into decline because of successful market penetration of new technologies. ITS technologies span this curve. For instance the potential for digital mapping and global positioning applications is currently expanding rapidly (for example in automatic accident notification). In contrast long-established means of communicating with drivers, such as text-based roadside variable message signs, may soon be displaced by alternatives (roadside and in-vehicle graphic displays).
The innovation and emerging sections of the curve are normally the preserve of research projects. Typically, standardisation takes place as the curve starts to expand. Caution is needed when considering major long-term investment in technologies that may be in decline. This is where legacy issues around maintenance and modification of existing systems become difficult – as system components may no longer be available. An example is 20 year old analogue standards for wired communications to traffic signal installations – which may not be supported indefinitely. In contrast, some technologies and products can be revitalised, reconfigured and relaunched in the market capturing the public imagination. This effectively moves them back along the bell curve away from decline to achieve expanding value. An example in the transport sector is the updating and reinvention of the bicycle to meet niche markets including city bicycle-hire fleets supported by ITS back office systems. A strategy to reduce the risk of technological obsolescence in ITS systems and applications, is to design them using established open standards (so far as possible).
An issue when looking at future trends, is whether a new technology will last more than a short period of time. In the past, the market in ITS-based products and services was not heavily influenced by fads and fashions in consumer electronics. This has been changing with the fast pace of technological change and the development and promotion of branded products that capture the public imagination. What at first sight might appear to be a short lived market trend may turn out to have a major impact in terms of technology take-up. The challenge is to see beyond the latest fad or fashion and try to spot the technologies that are going to mature into long lasting products.
A good example of this is social media. When it started, social media was a way of contacting long-lost school friends and acquaintances and sharing information (for example, Friends Reunited). Initially it was thought of as a fad. However, it quickly became established with different players competing for market share and developing different aspects of a well-established market. One ITS application in this market is travel information, where social media has the potential to become the main method by which travellers receive real-time information about travel conditions and options and can provide feedback. When social media first appeared this would have been difficult to predict. The challenge for developers is to identify areas of opportunity - in whatever sector or market they exist – which could offer useful and attractive transport applications. Early candidates for investment need to be evaluated to assess their potential to become a well-established market or product over the lifecycle of a typical ITS project (10-15 years) as illustrated below for clothing and other consumer products.
Product Lifecycles (Source: Cornell University https://courses.cit.cornell.edu/cuttingedge/lifeCycle/03.htm)
Visions of the long-term future of transport are not new. Numerous studies have been published. Concern about the continuing growth in the volume of road traffic, global warming and environmental sustainability has highlighted the need to think and plan further ahead. In many countries building more and bigger highways is no longer seen as the answer to tackling the problems of road traffic congestion and pollution. Transport authorities and road operators need a vision of future mobility and the part that the road network will play, so they can identify their investment priorities and develop a “road map” of how to get from here to there.
Finding the way forward is not easy when social and economic changes are fundamental and profound. Many regions have exhausted the possibilities for fine-tuning their existing transport systems. There is increasing evidence that new ways are needed to think and act. Visioning and scenario planning are techniques to help organisations to look ahead in an uncertain future.
Visioning is a valuable tool for strategic planning. It encourages active local involvement by looking at:
Visioning is widely used by nations, individuals, businesses and community groups. It is a structured way to look ahead. With a clear vision of where we want to be, we can identify exactly what we should be doing now.
A vision is something that you want to achieve: for example Sweden’s “Vision Zero” – zero tolerance of road accidents.
The vision has to be attainable within the resources that can be made available. A vision that is not attainable remains a fantasy, even though many of its aspirations could be viable and attainable.
The uncertainty of the future means that no single future vision can claim to be accurate. Planners need to consider a number of contrasting visions and different future scenarios.
Realising a future vision may require a process of working backwards from the end goal, in order to decide how to go forward from the present situation.
Successful future visioning will yield new propositions for business development that can be subjected to conventional project appraisal.
To encourage new ways of thinking about future prospects many organisations engage in scenario building as part of future visioning, to feed into the strategic planning process. Scenarios are tools for helping organisations to take a long-term view in a world of great uncertainty. Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future. Each story will offer a different perspective on how transport can serve society and the economy without being limited by what exists today, or excluding options that may be unpopular or unthinkable today.
Future scenarios are not exact predictions of the future but provide a means of thinking through the implications of a given development strategy if it was taken to its logical limit. For example, three very different future scenarios were used in the Vision 2030 project for the Highways Agency for England, as summarised in the box below.
Scenario 1: “A Global Economy”
Scenario 2: “Control and Plan”
Scenario 3: “Quality of Life”
Scenario planning can challenge traditional thinking by requiring planners to imagine multiple futures – each one very different from that experienced today. Each scenario will present a different image of the future – not an extension of the past.
The next stage is to evaluate whether the planning issues and concepts that emerge from a visioning exercise are worthy of further refinement. Each emerging theme should be tested against several criteria to identify those ideas and concepts that offer promising directions for business development. Evaluation criteria include:
For each concept or major issue, how much of what is hypothesised or forecast to occur is almost certain – or is it highly speculative and uncertain? What is felt to be the most likely outcome, based on today’s perspective? How useful would it be to keep track of, and manage, that uncertainty? See Challenges and Opportunities
What are the implications of the issue for urban and inter-urban transport, and the strategic inter-urban network in particular? What kinds of risks are implied – technical, political, organisational? How might these risks be managed and contained? See Integrated Operations, Purpose and Objectives and Context for Deployment
Does the concept offer opportunities for developing synergies with other key players – or for developing new business opportunities that would benefit future operations on the network? See Inter-Agency Working
Does the issue suggest a potential disaster scenario that should be analysed so that mitigation strategies can be developed in good time? What might be the consequences of failing to plan for these ”worst case” scenarios? Are there obvious response strategies that should be explored? See Security Planning
If these methods are applied successfully a number of propositions will emerge. The propositions that feature in more than one future scenario should be developed in depth. Others that are specific to one scenario may justify attention because of the scale of their consequences.
Each proposition will focus on a different aspect of the future of inter-urban travel, whether by road or other modes, and can be mapped on to the road operator’s business. These propositions may have important implications for the transport authority and road operator – whatever the future may hold.
For each proposition further work is needed to develop short-term and medium-term business development goals that are attainable and credible and which contribute to the achievement of the long-term proposition. The technique of “back- casting”, illustrated in the figure below is useful here.
Backcasting to identify the steps involved in reaching a desired goal.
Rather than using forecasts and trends, the “back-casting” methodology takes as its starting point that the goal has been achieved. The analysis then concentrates on identifying the factors that contribute to achievement of that result. Based on this analysis, pathways from the present day towards the long-term goal can be mapped and specific intermediate goals and stepping stones can be identified.
The combination of scenario building, visioning and “back-casting” are ways of “thinking out of the box” and challenging the outcome of more conventional planning methods and assumptions. In this way, future propositions can provide a starting point for new research and development and can influence the longer-term strategy for managing the strategic road network in times of uncertainty.
By way of example, here are twelve propositions that emerged from considering the three different future scenarios for the Vision 2030 project mentioned above. These propositions were goals that the Highway Agency of England could work towards in setting its business development priorities and long-term plans.
“Green Highways” are intended to blend sensitively into both the natural and built environments. Road building and maintenance operations will be more sustainable making more efficient use of resources, “green” materials and more recycled and industrial waste products.
Highway design codes will need to be re-assessed to accommodate global warming. The use of ‘smart’ lightweight materials, greater use of recycling, improved construction and tunnelling methods will all have major impacts on transport infrastructure.
Quieter road surfaces and solar noise barriers will reduce noise nuisance. Biodiversity will be conserved and enhanced by providing water features such as drainage ponds, whereas “green bridges” and wildlife tunnels will reduce habitat severance. Air quality will be improved by eco-driving and more traffic control methods. See Driver Support and Green and ITS
Highways need to prioritise freight on the network and guarantee safe, secure, timely, cost-effective and reliable distribution of goods and services in the interests of sustaining a strong global economy. International markets will put a premium on seamless integration of end-to-end logistic services and efficient operation of the inter-urban transport network.
Increases in point-of-sale and just-in time inventory systems, express package delivery and e-commerce will prompt rapid growth in van and truck movements. See “Just-in-Time”
Increasing volumes of trade will require efficient port, ferry and airport operations integrated with ground transport infrastructure and operations. See Intermodal Freight. Larger ferries and container ships, bigger cargo aircraft and 24 hour just-in time operations will add disproportionately to freight traffic around ports, ferry terminals and airports. In response, advances in freight logistics will provide opportunities for the Network Operator to influence the supply chain to maximize efficient trunk road use. Active traffic management and development of inter-modal corridor and route management concepts will support this opportunity. See Integrated Operations
Network Operators aim to deliver unprecedented standards of safety for road users, and those who operate the network. Crashes and multiple collisions will be virtually eliminated. See Safety
Improvements in highway design will incorporate “state of the art” road features such as electronic signs, active speed control, better physical barriers, crash cushions, and breakaway devices. See Road Safety
“Smart highways” and “smart cars” will increase safety and reduce the dangers of motoring. New vehicles will incorporate intelligent speed adaptation; collision warning systems; breath alcohol "sniffer" systems; intelligent seatbelt reminders; emergency "may day" systems; and route navigation systems. Automatic enforcement techniques will permit better enforcement of road safety laws, particularly speeding, thereby reducing crashes. See Driver Support and Policing / Enforcement
Security threats will lead to greater levels of surveillance and other defensive measures. See Security Threats
Active and dynamic traffic management - “Sweating the Asset” - is vital to counter long-term regular gridlock. Traffic growth and personal travel will continue unabated leading to greater congestion and more extensive and frequent standstills unless new strategies are developed. See Traffic Management
Future network operating strategies will routinely provide for a dynamic allocation of roadspace serving optional and non-essential movements, as well as high-value journeys and priority movements of freight. See Congestion Management
The management of the highway transportation system in its totality will become highly automated and increasingly real-time. Fast intercity travel by new technology will need to be integrated with existing road, air and rail infrastructure. Dual use of highway corridors may be an option.
New technologies will allow for real-time pricing of transportation facilities to increase efficiency, make better use of spare capacity, and reduce congestion delays. This will be supported by systems that dynamically control and advise traffic on the network to maintain traffic flow without adversely affecting the local environment. See Future Trends, Travel Information Systems and Traveller Services
Space on the highway is at a premium. Managing demand is essential for efficient and reliable operation of the network. See Demand Management
Strenuous efforts will promote travel substitution to reduce the demand for transportation through telecommuting, electronic communications, and alternative work schedules.
Marketing to suppress travel may be inevitable. Rationing of mobility between people and goods, and between competing demands for access to the network, will require instruments to achieve mobility changes without social exclusion.
Introduction of slot allocation and journey booking systems, extensive queue management and rationing of roadspace through dynamic use of priority lanes, as well as mode switching and the use of road pricing (congestion charges) will all be deployed to prevent widespread gridlock.
Enforcement will be an essential tool of network management - effective, simple and respectful of human s so that is perceived as fair and proportionate. See Law Enforcement and Enforcement Systems
Pressure is growing to get best value from highways as a national asset and to operate the network in response to society’s mobility needs. Innovation and flexibility over financial, contractual and organisational arrangements will follow. See Business Perspectives
The roles and responsibilities of the network owner, operator and regulator will be more sharply defined. Institutional re-alignment of enterprises will force horizontal and vertical integration, with regional, continental and even global reach. See Stakeholders
The network operator will be required to achieve high levels of performance. Operating the highway network safely and efficiently on a 24/7 basis will grow in complexity and importance, with the added dimension of dynamic controls to meet a diversity of demand patterns. See Purpose and Objectives
Work is needed on methods of long-term investment appraisal, innovative finance, risk assessment, value management and whole life costing. New contractual and organisational arrangements will flow from the need to secure efficient, integrated transport operations, probably extending across regional and national boundaries. See Project Appraisal and Finance and Contracts
Reliable, integrated transit services that can compete with the comfort and convenience of the car are to be an integral part of high volume transport corridors.
Technology offers the prospect of more efficient and flexible, inter-connected transit and cooperative systems (such as the door-to-door seamless journey, a personalised journey, more favourable overall travel costs). See Passenger Transport and Applications
There may be widespread use of guided bus-ways and/or dedicated transit lanes, plus queue management to favour passenger transport vehicles. Modal interchange facilities to long-distance and local collective transport will become increasingly important, such as road-rail ‘Transferiums’, or multi-modal travel centres, offering large-scale park and ride facilities, integrated payment, pre-booking and ticketing arrangements.
This package can only go ahead with the active cooperation of the highway network operator. They will work closely with the vehicle operators to achieve flexible and reliable public transport operations, including demand responsive features. See Mode Transfer
The highway needs to provide a responsive service and a travel experience that matches the needs of a diverse and dynamic customer base. The needs of highway users will be given highest priority. See Road User Needs
Better understanding about user priorities and their trade-offs will enable optimisation of demand for road space and customer ‘buy-in’. Market segmentation may be crucial. People retired from employement will have more time for leisure activities. Travel in non-peak hours may increase at a greater rate, relative to commuting travel. People will drive longer distances for both leisure and work. Regional migration will have significant implications for traffic flows on the trunk road network.
Through more sophisticated matching of customer needs with the allocation of roadspace, the concept of ‘peak hours’ will decline. Changes in the use of time and mobility may result in leisure becoming the dominant industry, with local, regional, national and worldwide implications. The modal mix will also differ by time and area. See Transport Demand Management
Understanding and predicting these patterns is a prerequisite for planning infrastructure, manpower and pro-active traffic management.
The connected customer needs access to relevant information at all times, irrespective of mode, in order to make informed travel choices before and during their journey. Advances in digital and communications technologies will deliver personalised travel information anywhere and everywhere. See Traveller Services
Road users’ expectations about information delivery will become more sophisticated. This will be combined with other digital services: on-line booking and payment, parking, pick-up, business services, timetables, late-running, forecast travel times, travel costs, interchange options, directions, yellow pages.
An efficient and attractive network of strategic interchanges for people and goods is needed to optimise transit through congested corridors with safe, secure and efficient transfer. See Mode Transfer, Freight & Delivery Operations and Intermodal Freight
The role of transport nodes as interchange points, vehicle/freight holding areas and transhipment centres will become more significant. Their functioning as activity centres in their own , providing entertainment, retail and business services (like airports and railway terminals) will grow.
There will be intense pressure to find ways to alleviate local access problems. Access schemes based on high-capacity park and ride will be seen as an attractive alternative - and possibly a necessary complement - to road pricing and congestion charges and other methods of traffic restraint. Existing commercial and shopping centres, airports, sports and entertainment centres, tourist attractions and other major destinations are all potential candidates.
Highways of the future need to utilise intelligent infrastructure that interacts with the vehicles and people using it. See Coordinated Vehicle Highway Systems, Connected Vehicle Technology and Connected Vehicles
Cooperative driving and greater automation of the highway will deliver predictable and reliable journey times and greater safety in adverse weather conditions. However, the public may be resistant. Reassurance on safety, reliability, practicality and sustainability will be required.
A backbone of inter-regional automated highway lanes will be established. The lanes will provide safe, fast and predictable journey times for those willing to pay the price.
ITS will bring other innovations which help focus on a favoured traffic mix, such as freight convoys. ITS will make it easier to minimise the disruptive effects of road works, maintenance programmes, and will increase the life of the highway.
An active involvement in planning and development control is essential to achieve the vision of integrated transport and sustainable use of the highway network. This will require best use of existing corridors and land use patterns.
Sustainable, integrated land use and transport solutions will be the result of close involvement by the Network Operator in influencing the pattern of development over a long period of time.
Growing concerns about environmental impacts, congestion and accidents will encourage planners to find better ways of utilising the existing highway corridors. These will include "Low Emmission Zones", “Green Corridors” and multimodal inter-city integrated transport corridors that minimise community disruption and severance and give priority to smarter cleaner vehicles, collective and automated forms of transport, cyclists and pedestrians.
By being pro-active, the Network Operator can influence future patterns of transport supply. See Inter-Agency Working and Planning and Reporting
The world is an ever-changing place. Global demographic trends predict continuing population growth – with a substantial increase in the ageing population and greater concentration in urban areas. This has major consequences in every area of the global economy and for society as a whole. There will be significant impacts on transport. Pressing environmental issues include global warming, security of energy supply, air quality, land use, along with transport resilience in the face of major weather events. Societal issues include accessibility, inclusivity, safety and security for all sectors of the population including children, the elderly, disabled, and the working and non-working populations. These are all factors which have a bearing on the future development of ITS systems. Together they represent an increasingly complex set of challenges for those seeking to plan and deliver sustainable transport systems. They also require planners to look to the future and explore:
When will the future be the present? And just how “smart” do solutions need to be? Smart does not necessarily have to mean ‘technologically advanced’. A solution can be considered smart because it is used intelligently. We are, for example, using high-visibilty road signs and retro-reflective road markings to improve driver safety and ease of navigation without having to distract the driver with in-car systems.
The roads and highway infrastructure and vehicle fleet are not going to change overnight; we are not suddenly going to be in a position where all vehicles have smart dashboards with headup displays. In reality traditional and new systems will co-exist side by side in use together. Legacy systems may have a great influence on future directions.
Every new or advanced system will be a legacy one at some point in the future. Legacy in the context of road network operations means the investment that has been made to date in infrastructure and equipment across the entire road network. This includes, for instance, computers, communications, data systems and software. Legacy systems are often operating long after new and better systems are available that have increased functionality and reliability. The legacy may represent a sizable investment. It is not only a matter of tried and tested designs and proven equipment, but also the accumulated knowledge and experience of the people that work with them. Just because equipment is old, potentially outdated and outmoded, doesn’t mean it should be thrown away. A degree of future proofing, to delay technological obsolescence, can be achieved by designing new systems as “open systems” and by adopting open standards to give scope for replacing components or modifying systems.
An incremental approach to innovation may reduce potential risks. Added value can sometimes be achieved by integrating a range of applications into a single system. For example, equipment installed for spot-speed enforcement may in future be used for additional enforcement activities (such as different types of speed control, weigh-in-motion and license plate recognition of wanted vehicles). The aim is to make best use of the infrastructure that is already there: telecommunications network, power supply, roadside and gantry installations.
The greatest impact on transport demand arises from population growth, the increase in number of households and their location and associated levels of economic activity. A key challenge is to predict likely changes in living and mobility patterns. An elusive goal - in the interests of transport demand management and environmental sustainability - is to try to decouple the close link between economic growth and increased transport demand. Possible ways of doing this, which futures work needs to address are:
This may involve looking at areas such as:
In June 2013 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations published its predictions for World Population until the end of the 21st Century (See Figure below).The medium range forecast was for an increase of over 50% by the end of the century (7.2bn in 2013 to 8.1bn in 2025; 9.6bn in 2050; 10.9bn in 2100).
Forecasts of World Population 1950-2100 (Source: United Nations, 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, New York)
Population growth is estimated to be highest in developing economies at over 60% (5.9bn in 2013 to 9.6bn in 2100), whereas the population of the developed world is thought likely to remain fairly static, with an increase of less than 3% (1.25bn in 2013 to 1.28bn in 2100).
The characteristics of the profile of the population, in terms of age, gender, ethnic and cultural composition, personal mobility, where and how they live – will be affected by migration and seasonal fluctuations – and will all impact on transport demand, mobility patterns and preferences, infrastructure needs and services. The number of people of core working age (25-59) in developing economies, for example, is predicted to increase by 57% in (2.6bn in 2013 to 4.1bn in 2100). In the developed world, the corresponding population is predicted to peak in 2013 and reduce by 17% by the end of the century (608m in 2013 to 504m by 2100).
Further information on population changes is available in the report for the United Nations’ Department for Economic and Social Affairs ‘World Population Prospects – The 2012 Revision’ This presents the UN’s updated population estimates and projections – and synthesises them with the findings of recent demographic surveys from around the world.
A key trend in the distribution of the world’s population in the 21st Century is greater urbanisation. A report commissioned by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed that for OECD countries, by 1950, the urban population was already larger than the rural population (See below). Wider world trends towards urbanisation - reached the same milestone in 2006. The UN predicts that by 2050, 70% of the world’s population and 86% of the population of OECD countries will live in cities. Today there are 33 ‘megacities’ with populations in excess of 10 million people, 11 of which have more than 20 million people.
Urban and Rural Population Forecasts 1950-2030 (Source: Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What Lessons for China?, OECD).
This huge growth in urbanisation increases the demand for housing, associated utilities and services including transport infrastructure, public transport, vehicle parking and better integration between the urban, inter-urban and national transport networks. In turn, this leads to increased pressure on land use and development within or around urban areas contributing to land shortages, urban sprawl and decline of the agricultural sector in rural areas. The issues will be how to service accessibility and mobility for these communities - or find solutions which reduce travel dependency.
Useful information on urbanisation is provided in the OECD report ‘Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What Lessons for China’ It synthesises trends in urbanisation and urban policies in OECD countries – and one of its key messages for China is that a successful urban development strategy should build upon an urban region’s own characteristics - not simply its infrastructure, but also the knowledge and skills of its workers.
The Green and ITS book (edited by SWECO-ITS) describes how Stockholm is using ITS to reduce environmental impact from transport and the development of a true sustainable transport system.
A major challenge arising from changing demographics is the increasing proportion of the population living into old age. This is a result of increasing life expectancy linked to declining mortality. A major study by the United Nations, predicted that the percentage of the population over 60 years of age would increase by 13% over the 100 year period between 1950-2050 (from 8% in 1950; to 10% in 2000; to 21% in 2050). This ageing population will affect transport both directly and indirectly through factors such as the make-up of the workforce, the numbers of youthful and ageing vehicle drivers. There will also be an increased demand for improved accessibility and greater mobility assistance for those less able to travel independently, new technologies to enable them to drive safely, and alternative services if this is not affordable or possible.
Further information on the ageing population is available from the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ 2002 report ‘World Population Ageing 1950-2050’. It describes global trends in population ageing and addresses characteristics of the ageing process in different regions and countries. The aim is to assist policy makers to define, formulate and evaluate goals and programmes - and to raise public awareness and support for any policy changes needed.
The demographic changes will require efficient management of large, urban transport networks and their connections with national networks and international gateways. Quick to implement ITS technologies provide flexible solutions to rapid change and have a key role to play alongside the lengthier process of planning, implementing and adapting large infrastructure projects (such as major roads, metros, railways and airports). This provides opportunities for market-driven ITS applications for consumers. For transport authorities, the key consideration is to be aware of anticipated changes in travel patterns in the short-to-medium term (the 10 to 15 years which mirrors the typical lifecycle of ITS technology) and to design transport management systems around those changes.
Information and control systems must serve, and be understood by, all sections of the population if they are to be effective, inclusive and acceptable. They also need to be adapted to the needs of travellers with disabilities. Presentation of information in appropriate sensory forms (audible, visual, tactile) should therefore form a key element of the design of future ITS systems (See Human Factors).
Road transport is a major consumer of energy and has profound environmental impacts. The effects of transportation are complex and widespread. Air, water, land-use, animals and habitats are just a few of the domains affected at the local, regional and global level.
Transport is the third largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions (14.3%) - with road transport alone responsible for almost three quarters of that (10.5%) according to the World Resources Institute. In Europe, whilst emissions from other sectors have declined, transport emissions increased by 36% between 1990-2007 - despite improved vehicle efficiency – as a result of the overall increase in use of personal and freight transport.
Although transport provides many positive benefits for the individual as well as the economy and society as a whole, it is also one of the greatest obstacles to sustainable development. Unrestrained growth in traffic will continue to exacerbate the problems of traffic congestion and pollution.
People are becoming increasingly concerned about this and a new transport consensus is emerging that recognises that building more roads to meet increasing demand for road transport is not a sustainable option. Instead the focus is on making more effective use of existing infrastructure through better operational management and publicly acceptable ways of reducing demand and increasing capacity. This requires a comprehensive approach to transport and land use planning - fully integrated with policies, measures and technologies which support more sustainable transport. ITS has a key role to play in this new integrated approach.
A major challenge facing resource-dependent countries all over the world is to secure reliable and undistorted access to the raw materials needed for manufacturing and the economy as a whole. This includes rare earth elements that are widely used in road transport and ITS applications such as catalytic converters, flat panel displays, petroleum refining, permanent magnets and rechargeable batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles. The main threat is vulnerability of supply - arising from their rarity, the cost of extraction, supply and transformation, and political factors compromising security of supply, all of which may act to increase costs.
In June 2010 the European Commission published a report that analysed 41 raw materials and identified 14 as being critical to the European Union’s (EU) economy. The figure below shows the concentration of their production across the world. They are just as relevant to other industrialised and developing economies in terms of supply and demand. Several form key components of emerging technologies and ITS applications. Of particular concern are the raw materials below used in the production of the following technologies and transport applications:
Shortages of the specific raw materials for ITS components and applications may not have been a major cause of concern in the past. However, today, it is becoming increasingly important with any technology, to factor in future dependencies on the supply of raw materials when developing or deploying applications - whether it be sensitivity to price, rarity or political instability affecting supply. The EU’s 2010 report on defining critical raw materials is recommended to be updated every 5 years. There will be other reports on these issues for other regions of the world which could provide a useful source of information source when making assessments of ITS dependency on raw materials.
In the past, technological progress in exploring, mining and processing raw materials has helped supply to keep up with demand and reduce the costs of extraction and transformation. The value of these scarce resources puts pressure on countries to adopt industrial strategies and measures which distort international trade and investment in the raw materials market. This can involve the imposition of export taxes, quotas, subsidies, price-fixing or restrictive investment rules. Where measures are at odds with international trade agreements - such as those of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) – arbitration and formal dispute procedures may offer a remedy to signatory governments.
Production of Critical Raw Materials (Source: Memo/10/263, 17 June 2010, European Commission)
The European Union’s 2010 ‘Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials’ aimed to develop a methodology to assess criticality and apply it to a selection of raw materials to determine which were the most critical to the European economy.
The United Nations Earth Summit in 2014 reported that energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase under a ‘business as usual’ scenario by nearly 50% in 2030 compared with 2009. In 2009, transport was already responsible for consuming one-fifth of energy use - and contributed around one-quarter of energy-related global greenhouse gas emissions. Road transport and the internal combustion engine, reliant on fossil fuels, accounts for the lion’s share of transport emissions.
As the global stock of vehicles increases, so will global emissions - unless new technologies and measures are developed and implemented to stop and reverse the trend. This includes road vehicles powered by alternative and renewable fuels and supported by an effective refuelling infrastructure, technology to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles, their interaction with the road infrastructure and driver behaviour. It also includes measures that reduce the demand for travel, compact city planning, large-scale expansion of public transport systems and promotion of non-motorised transport. Apart from the environmental challenges, the issue of fossil fuelled transport needs to be tackled since fossil fuels are a finite resource.
In 2007 the World Energy Council (WEC) published its ‘Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050’. This analysed the shifting energy needs and technology solutions for transport over the next 40 years. It assessed existing and potential fuel and vehicle technologies - both qualitatively and quantitatively. The aim was to develop a roadmap of technologies and measures needed to meet the WEC’s objective of sustainable energy. It outlined the policies needed to achieve the objective. Sustainability was measured in terms of:
The qualitative measure was how far each technology contributed to reduced consumption.
One of the key trends identified was a shift from largely petrochemical-powered passenger vehicles in 2020 towards an era in 2050 with a significantly higher proportion of both hybrid vehicles powered by renewables (biofuel and hydrogen) and pure electric vehicles. This gradual change in the primary fuel source for personal travel is likely to require greater integration between the transportation and energy sectors. ITS technologies may help integrate energy management systems as part of a wider e-mobility solution.
The World Energy Council produces an annual Energy Issues Monitor. Its 2014 edition assessed key energy issues in terms of their level of impact and uncertainty in the future. It is worthwhile tracking these assessments to identify the energy issues that may impact on mobility trends/patterns and mobility technology in the future.
Further information on energy and fuels is available from the World Energy Council’s study.
There is increasing scientific consensus that global warming is under way, linked in part to human activity. If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are to be stabilised, efforts to reduce them will need to be sustained over many decades at a global scale. To meet the challenge of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions, new forms of propulsion for vehicles are being introduced (electric, hybrid and fuel cell drives) whilst traditional petrochemical engines have become more efficient.
Since climate change cannot be prevented entirely, it will also be necessary to adapt to it. For transport this will mean finding new ways to plan for, detect and respond to extreme weather events – smart transport, energy and communications infrastructure, materials and vehicle components, smart detection and maintenance technologies, new organisational models. ITS technologies have a role to play.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. Its 2014 report highlighted the threats posed by weather-related events to critical infrastructure (energy, communications and transport).
Danish Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change
Part of a future transport strategy could be to assess the impact of changing weather patterns on transport infrastructure and put in place plans to improve the resilience of the transport networks to changing weather patterns and severe weather events. An example of this is the Danish Road Directorate’s strategy for adapting to climate change, which was developed in 2013.
The IPCC also develops scenarios to predict the impacts on global temperatures and weather patterns - of increases and decreases in greenhouse gases. Particular attention is focused on carbon dioxide, as one of the major gases produced as a result of the use of petrochemical and other carbon-based fuels in transportation networks.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Climate Summit 2014
The 2014 Climate Summit announced that a shift towards more sustainable transport is essential to achieve the internationally agreed goal of a maximum rise of 2 degrees Celsius in average global temperature. The alternative was a doubling of transport’s greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the twenty first century (2050). The International Energy Agency estimated that a shift to sustainable, low-carbon transport in the same time-frame, could save governments, companies and individuals up to US$70 trillion. The IPCC announced several initiatives to put the transport sector on track towards a low-carbon future. These included one on Urban Electric Mobility - to increase the number of electric vehicles in cities to 30% of all new vehicles sold annually by 2030, whilst simultaneously developing the enabling infrastructure for their effective use.
Further information on climate change is available from the IPCC’s website.
Road transport is a major source of pollution contributing to poor air quality and noise distrurbance – particularly in urban areas, alongside busy roads and nearby major transport interchanges such as airports and bus stations. Air pollutants from transport include nitrogen oxides, particles, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. All have a damaging impact on the health of people, animals and habitats locally. Road traffic noise is linked to hypertension, sleep loss, changes in heart rate and stress.
Over the past 30 years or so, there has been significant progress in reducing vehicle related air pollution and noise. This has resulted primarily from improvements in the technology for fuel vehicle systems, the use of catalytic converters to treat combustion products, the development of cleaner burning fuels, the introduction of alternative and renewable fuels and electric vehicles, and eco-friendly driver-vehicle applications.
Despite the gains there is a risk that increases numbers of vehicles on the road will erode the benefits. Similarly, new developments can often bring unintended negative consequences. The silence of electric vehicles for instance can increase the risk of incidents and accidents with pedestrians, cyclists and other vulnerable road users leading to a demand to design-in noise.
World Health Organisation – Air Quality and Health
In 2014 the World Health Organisation (WHO) produced a report analysing premature deaths across the world in 2012 that were attributable to ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor) air pollution. It found that some 7 million deaths could be attributed to their joint effects (3.7 million were related to outdoor air quality issues) - making air pollution one of the world’s largest environmentally related health risks.
The ability to adapt to environmental threats, without causing major impacts, is often based on the level of resilience of the networks under threat. When planning ITS deployments it is good practice to undertake scenario planning to try to understand how the deployments will be affected in different and sometimes extreme circumstances. These may point to a need to put in place backup systems for power and communications for elements of the ITS infrastructure. An example might be systems to divert travellers away from flooded parts of the transport network.
In the future there may be restrictions on when and where certain types of vehicle can be used. Low emissions zones have been introduced in some cities for different types of vehicles – and ITS play a role in monitoring and enforcing them. Similarly the use of ITS to manage vehicle speeds and reduce them can result in a reduction in the amount of fuel used by vehicle and its consequential levels of carbon dioxide emissions (See Speed Management). The introduction of electric vehicles has led to new forms of refuelling infrastructure as well as the development of e-mobility management systems for vehicles - due to the shorter range of pure electric vehicles and the need to efficiently manage that range.
From an ITS perspective technology can be used to monitor air pollution and manage transport emissions in the following ways:
The global demographic and environmental challenges are forcing us to consider innovative and sometimes radical approaches to travel and transport – making best use of information, new technologies and applications.
The expectation is that accurate and dependable information will allow transport users to choose travel options that match their needs, modify trip departure times, or even reschedule events to take advantage of better travel conditions and travel times. Putting information in the hands of consumers is critical in managing metropolitan-wide traffic volumes and congestion. The more pressure that can be taken off congested periods and locations, the quicker it will clear and allow traffic to flow. Using data analytics, a clear and complete view of the traffic conditions can be obtained helping to optimise its management.
The need to achieve a more environmentally sustainable and efficient transport system is driving developments to achieve reduced carbon emission targets and make better use of road capacity.
Social media is transforming the way that business is carried out. The message to ITS practitioners (from both the public and private sectors) is to harness its power.
Manage your relationship with your customers – the road users:
Crowd source vital information:
Potential Outcomes:
Social media are already proving to be an effective way of acquiring and sharing information, in real-time, on disruption to transport networks and alternative travel options. Facebook and Twitter come into their own in these situations – for example, the 2010 volcanic ash cloud across Europe which brought large parts of the aviation industry to a halt and during the heavy monsoon rains in Mumbai in 2014 which flooded the roads and metro network. In Queensland and Victoria (Australia) in 2010-11, community-initiated Facebook groups - sourcing their information from road and weather authorities, police and other emergency services – provided vital intelligence about road closures and flooding.
Social media also offers a free platform to let the world know who you are and what you do – to establish your brand and manage your profile and relationship with customers. A presence in social media enables you to manage a constructive dialogue fans and critics alike. Failure to engage can leave organisations without a voice to counter criticism.
According to a 2012 American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Social Media Survey, Twitter remains the most-used social media outreach tool for State Departments for Transportation (DOTs) in the USA - with 88% (37 of 42) saying they use Twitter in some way to share information. In 2011, only 31 out of 38 agencies reported using Twitter and in 2010 only 26 agencies of 32 surveyed reported using the tool as part of their public engagement strategy. This shows that some public agencies have still to recognise the value of social media for communicating with road users.
To get the most out of any social media activities, a strategy for engagement is needed: who to target, what are the messages, and how best to do it? The strategy needs to be kept under review to take account of new media and technology and changes in business priorities. As social networks multiply and develop new functionalities it is unlikely that road authorities and road managers will be early adopters to help deliver their core business. They are more likely to wait until there is some stability in market usage to determine which media are the most appropriate platforms for them. They will then need a knowledge of the profile and preferences of their customers (the road users) to help identify which social networks and technology platforms are likely to be most useful to target.
Engagement with social media needs to be properly resourced. Among the challenges that public agencies face, are staffing, training, capacity building and engagement policy. Some agencies are expanding their communications teams whilst others expect existing teams to manage their growing social media footprint whilst also maintaining more traditional outreach activities.
Eco-mobility is a general term to cover vehicle technologies, driving techniques, traffic management and other policies and measures that support more environmentally friendly transport of people and freight. Many of the emerging concepts make use of ITS to achieve carbon reduction targets through reduced air pollution and more efficient energy use. Promising developments are in smoothing traffic signal operations and lane management to optimise traffic throughput, alongside regulatory and policy instruments to help travellers to make “green” travel choices and reduce their environmental impact.
This ITS application is similar to current traffic signal systems but the objective is to optimise the performance of traffic signals for the environment. Data from vehicles (vehicle location, speed, and emissions data) is obtained using connected vehicle technologies. This is processed to develop signal timing strategies aimed at minimising stop/start conditions thereby reducing fuel consumption and overall emissions at the intersection, along a corridor, or for a region.
This ITS application, illustrated in the figure below allows public transport or freight vehicles to request signal priority at an intersection taking account of vehicle’s location, speed, type (such as hybrid or alternative fuelled vehicles). It assess associated emission data to determine whether priority should be granted.
Source: Eco-Signal Operations Concept of Operations, US Department of Transportation, 2014)
This approach is similar to High Occupancy Vehicle lanes (HOV lanes), with dedicated freeway lanes optimised to encourage use by vehicles operating in eco-friendly ways. The lanes may support variable speed limits, eco-cooperative adaptive cruise control and vehicle platooning applications, and wireless inductive/resonance charging infrastructure embedded in the roadway.
Electro-Mobility, also known as eMobility, refers to clean and efficient transport, using electric road vehicles powered either by batteries or by hydrogen fuel cells. Some may have an auxiliary internal combustion engine (hybrid) for extended use or to maintain the battery’s charge. Battery powered electric vehicles are gaining in importance with automotive manufacturers investing in the technology. Those leading the innovation range from small two-man teams to major multinational corporations and automotive companies.
In Europe, electric vehicles are increasingly being deployed in the market – but their large-scale adoption relies on investment in a networked charging infrastructure to extend their range. This requires investment in the development of ‘intelligent’ electricity distribution systems - or smartgrids - upgraded electricity networks, with intelligent metering and monitoring capabilities. Both the vehicles and infrastructure required for electro-mobility offer opportunities for further development of ITS in support of sustainable mobility.
An example of a concept for infrastructure development is wireless inductive/resonance charging (illustrated below) which uses magnetic fields to wirelessly transmit large electric currents between metal coils placed along the roadway several feet apart.
Inductive Resonance Charging (Source: James Provost ©IEEE)
Roadside charging infrastructure can also support static charging capable of transferring electric power to a vehicle parked in a garage or on the street and vehicles stopped at a traffic signal or a stop sign.
Alongside market opportunities is the issue of the role of governments. They can leave things to market forces or take measures to promote electric vehicle deployment in support of wider societal goals such as sustainability and urban livability.
Intelligent Transport Systems have provided new opportunities for improving the safety and efficiency of the road network. This includes the development of intelligent vehicles, connected by wireless networks to the roadside infrastructure – the “connected vehicle”(See Coordinated Vehicle Highway Systems).
Wireless technology is revolutionizing almost every aspect of daily life. The change is crossing all boundaries but nowhere is it more obvious than in cars. The falling price of hardware and wireless access are making the mass adoption of Connected Vehicles a more tangible reality. Large wireless telecommunications carriers and automotive manufacturers are working together to roll-out connected vehicles and mobile applications in response to new market opportunities. It’s not just the public that needs to be preparing itself for the forthcoming influx of connected vehicles. Public agencies need to position themselves intelligently, too, and in some countries, notably the USA and Japan, they need to be ready for Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) enabled connected vehicles.
The case for investing in the connected vehicle and co-operative systems from a road network operations perspective will concern safety benefits, improvement in operations and fewer traffic law violations. From the road operators’ point of view any developments that enable flexibility and feedback in operations including road pricing, emissions monitoring, crash avoidance and monitoring road network conditions will also be welcome. This will require co-operation between road authorities and the automotive industry and the exchange of data between vehicle and infrastructure.
This is no longer a research concept but a reality, with applications that fall into four different, but not necessarily separate, areas:
One area where the connected vehicle could have an impact in future is in helping to reduce congestion on motorways and other major roads. Squeezing more vehicles onto our already crowded highways is a much cheaper and more viable option than road widening. Systems which control (and shorten) the headway between vehicles offer the prospect of a major increase in highway capacity. For drivers the ‘automated highway’ could deliver better fuel efficiency by avoiding stop/start traffic flow and eliminate vehicle collisions (See Fully Automated Driving).
To be successful, vehicles will need to be fitted with the necessary (interoperable) technology and the traffic control system would need to balance traffic capacity on the highway with and the capacity of access and egress points and the surrounding arterial network. In addition the overall system would need to accommodate unequipped vehicles (for example by restricting them to certain lanes).
A more futuristic form of automation would be to create a centralised system to manage vehicle door to door journeys by allocating “slots” to individual vehicles based on operational priorities and road user pre-booking/payment options. The advantage for the network operator is the possibility of maximising use of network capacity and reducing congestion – and for drivers, shorter commutes and improved journey time reliability.
There are potential disadvantages posed by a central computer which knows the location of vehicles at all times where we are all the time. There are bound to be concerns about privacy; introducing new areas of risk and system security; and for many drivers, loss of control - takin away the pleasure of driving.
From the road network operator’s perspective, issues still to be addressed are – whether data from a vehicle can be used to:
The consumerisation of technology has had a massive impact on the transportation industry. Smartphones, and their companion data plans, are now widely available and increasingly affordable to a greater proportion of the population. The phones themselves, become information sources as well as a platform for pushing out travel information messages or as a means for making electronic payments.
Understanding the challenges and the opportunities posed by the explosion in data, and the value that data analytics can bring is fundamental. The use of natural language processing, graph analytics, distributed computing, machine learning, and predictive analytics - makes it possible to realise its latent value. The data can help inform the provision of better, more targeted services at reduced cost by making better use of the available infrastructure. However the data has to be extracted and aggregated or translated into information from which it is possible to identify new patterns and trends, increase automation, optimise business processes, improve efficiency or productivity.
The transportation industry is no newcomer to the world of business analytics or the collection of data, but, until recently, the data sources were not connected. Data collection, its analysis and its communication are major tools for planning and managing transport networks and services. Road network operators have been able to monitor traffic on the network and specific roads for decades but did not necessarily know anything about the individual user. For instance what were the journey origins and destinations? Was it a regular route – and how regular? The road network operator was missing access to this type of information that could help improve traffic management plans or monitor the effects of demand management schemes. Each transport and network operator used standalone systems, which did not communicate with each other.
Concern for the future of the environment has put the spotlight on energy conservation and pollution control. By using analytical data to understand driver behaviour, it has proved possible to put in place measures to persuade drivers to adopt different travel habits such as eco-driving or using public transport. The aim is to reduce roadway and parking congestion and protect the environment, while offering more convenience to customers.
Key issues in the future will include how to:
“Crowdsourcing” is a way of obtaining information on a volunteer basis from large groups of people, particularly the online community. The phrase was coined by the US journalist, Jeff Howe, to capture the interactive nature of gathering information from a crowd. Although the technique was used in the mid-nineteenth century, it has become part of popular culture and business in the internet era – which is why it usually involves a network community in the World Wide Web. People find it is in their own self-interest to participate in the collective sharing of data, views and other information that will influence and improve the performance of a particular application, measure or product. An example is the crowdsourcing of local information for navigation applications that benefit a specific user group such as cyclists or people with a disability.
Crowdsourcing exploits the idea of group intelligence, which means that the decisions of a diverse group of individuals can achieve the same or better result as expert opinion. It relies on the enthusiasm of the people in the crowd.
The motivation of contributors is the key factor in the success of any crowdsourcing initiative. Where people see no self-interest from contributing to a crowd sourcing initiative, other means of motivation will be needed to encourage their participation and generate a sufficient number to deliver useful real-time data. Traditional rewards, such as money, discounts or prizes, may not be appropriate – or the value of the reward may be perceived as too low to motivate contributors. A potential solution can be the use of “gamification” which applies gaming principles to encourage engagement with a task – making the task more attractive. Rewards tap into subjective feelings, such as personal status – and may range from simple scoreboards to more complex incentives such as attaining higher levels of difficulty. A European project, METPEX, used gamification to complement traditional data gathering techniques to develop a “Pan-European Tool to Measure the Quality of the Passenger Experience”. Further background on gamification in ITS is available from a 2013 webinar hosted by ITS Europe (ERTICO).
There are many examples of public authorities and private enterprises beginning to use crowdsourcing and gamification to improve their business operations. For instance, a research project in Austria, TrafficCheck, funded by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology (BMVIT) relies on the mapping and tagging enthusiasm of its crowdsourcing contributors to intuitively rate the traffic quality and safety of signal-controlled intersections.
Real-time data is information that is collected and delivered immediately without any delay in the timeliness of the information provided. Real-time data is widely used in ITS applications including traffic monitoring, route navigation, and the tracking and tracing of freight. Players across virtually all transportation industries can exploit the benefits of real-time data from new and existing sources to develop services and applications that will transform the way that travellers and other stakeholders use the transportation network.
Transport data is growing at an astounding rate. However, data collected from a wide variety of sources is often unused or under-used. The sources may include social communications such as blogs, emails, videos, social media, photos and data collected by different applications and sensors. What makes their analysis difficult is their volume, the speed at which they arrive, their variety, and their ownership, authenticity, trustworthiness and reliability over the whole data life cycle. For example, the generation and collection of vehicle data is the subject of much speculation – in particular on who owns the data. Is it the vehicle manufacturer, the application developer, the service provider, the car owner, driver or the road authority where that data was generated?
Anytime, Anywhere, Any Device Accessibility. As cellular and wireless technologies mature, their speed, data capacity and ability to reach people will be unprecedented. They offer new opportunities and challenges. The purchase of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) is set to overtake desktop computers and laptops in a few years. Making content accessible on existing and emerging platforms and packaging it for the consumer is a challenge which will continue to evolve with technology and help drive innovation in ITS applications and services. Cloud computing, for example, by relying on shared computing resources, has the potential to reduce ITS development costs – as well as facilitate the development of low cost (installation and maintenance) scaleable ITS applications and services in the operational environment. Recent examples, which rely on cloud computing, include: regionalisation of urban traffic control and smart wireless road sensors to monitor pavement conditions or to map noise/pollution points.
This communications technology-driven and data-heavy reality will be amplified in road transportation as the automotive industry rolls out vehicles able to connect to the Internet at 4G or future speeds. Instrumented vehicles and vehicle fleets offer the possibility of rich data on mobility and safety that can help road network operators, vehicle fleet operators and road users alike. These vehicles will provide a low cost platform for acquiring data in real-time across all classes of road - covering not only congestion and travel times, but also trip origins, destinations micro-climate, skid resistance and pavement condition.
Connectivity to the vehicle enables connectivity throughout the value chain by adding partners. Embedded phones provide the basis for four main services currently on offer: emergency call, traffic information, destination information downloads and remote diagnostics.
Co-operative applications need stable long-term technology – at least for the life-time of the vehicle. Co-operative driving will need internationally harmonised standards and “trust” protocols for communications between vehicles and with the infrastructure. Safety systems will need very reliable low-latency communications with a split-second response. Current thinking favours installation of Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) but 4th and 5th generation cellular networks will soon provide other communications options. The technology itself need not be a barrier to deployment.
The choice of communications technology is however critical. Cellular data systems are available throughout the world and provide support for many ITS applications but do they provide a sufficiently reliable and responsive service for safety applications? DSRC systems have been developed which are optimised for these services, but who will pay for the deployment and maintenance of the dedicated infrastructure and how will it be used and managed? Commercial technologies are developing fast and the next generation is already being deployed. How long will it be before these services can support machine to machine communications? Is a hybrid solution the answer?
In summary, the automotive industry is engaged in bringing connected vehicles to market as rapidly as possible, based on profitable consumer-led features (GSM, hands-free mobile phones, mobile internet, Infotainment). The commercial business case, in the near-term, is based entirely on using existing telecommunications services rather than develop new dedicated systems. The connected vehicle marketplace is developing at a fast pace. Road operators and other transportation agencies need to engage now or be behind. The sooner public agencies start planning, providing, procuring, participating and positioning themselves in this connected world, the sooner they will be a “player” on behalf of the public good.
Economic growth generates pressure for society to organise its mobility requirements in more intelligent ways. In the global economy of the 21st century, failure to address inefficiencies in the transport system will have an adverse effect on a country’s competitive position as well as its quality of life. Security concerns are also likely to become more prominent and may impact on transport services and international trade in ways that are unexpected and challenging. The potential for applying greater intelligence in transport is considerable
The concept of intelligence has its origins in psychology. There is no single definition of human intelligence but a variety of viewpoints. One interpretation is that it represents a single general ability to act. Another is a multidimensional cognitive ability that includes reasoning, planning, solving problems, thinking abstractly and comprehending complex ideas. In terms of transport services and products intelligence means ensuring they anticipate and respond to user needs and can be delivered efficiently and effectively - always recognising the diversity of needs and the pressure for compromise and trade-offs.
Several qualities of transport intelligence have been described:
Transport intelligence has relevance to two main categories of stakeholders – the transport operators or “producers” and the transport users. The first group apply their intelligence to construct, maintain and operate transport networks and provide transport services. The second group uses its intelligence to make use of these networks and services for personal and collective travel needs and for the transport of goods.
The needs of these two sets of stakeholders – the producers (which includes road owners and operators) and the users – are often very different and their interrelationships need to be considered when implementing new transport systems. These different requirements are addressed throughout this website( See Measuring Performance).
Any future vision for ITS needs to take account of a number of external factors, the characteristics of systems themselves and the risk of catastrophic failure.
The development of intelligence characterised by these qualities, responsive to stakeholder needs and external factors can be illustrated with the following concepts:
C-ITS Technologies and Applications for Intelligent Transport
ITS Europe (ERTICO), a partnership of around 100 companies and institutions involved in the development, production and deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), published in March 2015:
The Report makes recommendations on the roll-out of C-ITS services – in particular, how appropriate use of communication technologies can increase the quality of mobility services, safety and reliability whilst minimising costs. It covers three C-ITS deployment areas – for cities, corridors and traffic management/navigation. It presents relevant existing and maturing communication technologies – and describes their characteristics, cost structures and deployment models. It also maps services to the performance of communication technologies.
The Guide complements the report and is intended as a tutorial or guidance for those who would like a more detailed insight into C-ITS technologies, standards and initiatives.
The Report and the Guide are aimed at policy makers, procurers, operators, service providers and anyone with an interest in ITS. The goal is to support decision making about the most appropriate communication technologies for providing services.
The concept of Ambient Intelligence is relevant to ITS. It builds on the idea that we are surrounded by communications and computer technology embedded in everyday objects such as mobile phones, homes, vehicles and roads. Ambient intelligent systems, services and products are designed to include features that are sensitive and responsive to people’s needs and presence in an intelligent way. Ambient intelligence is fundamental to the concept of ubiquitous services as illustrated in the diagram below by the Korean Transport Institute.
Ubiquitous Services (Source: Korean Transport Institute)
With ambient intelligence comes an expectation of greater user-friendliness, more efficient services support, user-empowerment, and support for human interactions. This means working towards systems and technologies that are not only sensitive, responsive and intelligent but also interconnected, contextualised and transparent. Key enablers are:
Getting the human factors is essential to the successful adoption of new ITS systems (See Human Factors). This requires an understanding of human psychology and what factors influence people’s behaviour. A number of human behaviour issues impact on the roll-out of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) – and are highly pertinent to the application of ITS:
Political factors in society are also important. New technologies for instance, may become a source of social exclusion. Security, trust and confidence are also potential bottlenecks limiting the deployment of Ambient Intelligence.
Privacy and human s issues are significant. People are distrustful of having their movements monitored or being charged for services without immediate feedback. There may be a trade-off between privacy and service convenience. Some users will expect a degree of control over whether the systems report or conceal their identity and location.
Designers must also anticipate the possibility of hacking, sabotage, vandalism and criminal misuse, and a number of other “worst case scenarios”, not least regular accidental or wilful non-compliance with operating procedures. Self-recognition security systems will incorporate measures for detection, correction, prevention and elimination of these negative aspects. Flexibility to respond “on the fly” in crisis situations should also be written into the design. The consequences of a catastrophic failure must be assessed.
As support systems become more complex, they present the user with the problem of knowing and understanding what the system is currently doing. The driver who misinterprets the action of a complex or automated system may end up “fighting” the system. This is potentially very dangerous. There have been examples of incidents in civil aviation where pilots have tried to take manual control of the aircraft without first disengaging the autopilot.
Another potential problem with complex systems is that it becomes more difficult for a user to determine accurately whether the system functionality is deteriorating and has become substandard. Gradual deterioration combined with rarely used functions may lead to unpleasant surprises and dangerous situations.
When ITS reduces the operator’s role to supervision instead of active control, the supervisory activities can easily be neglected or omitted entirely, to make way for other activities. What can happen is illustrated by research with driving simulators. Drivers readily adapt to the use of anti-collision devices and may rely completely on the device after only a short learning period. If the simulated device is then made to fail, more than half of the drivers tested do not take effective action and crash. These simulations have been made under motorway conditions. A similar level of non-response in urban conditions - with a multitude of moving and stationary obstacles – would be far more dangerous.
What happens in the event of system failure is a critical safety issue. Reliability analysis of systems is essential to be able to deliver good products or services and avoid catastrophic events due to failure of component(s). In communication networks, for instance, it is important to have duplicate circuits, mirror servers and reliable components that are fault-reporting to avoid frequent interruption in communications or unavailability for long periods.
In some cases government agencies have a responsibility to ensure the safety, security and reliability of the system. In the interests of mitigating any risk to traffic safety, the authorities will require computerised traffic control systems to be designed to allow “graceful degradation” from centralised network-wide control to autonomous local control at each intersection. This means that even if a small number of computational and communication units fail, traffic control does not collapse but remains satisfactory. Service can be maintained, although possibly at a slower pace and at reduced capacity.
The consequences of system failure for some of the more futuristic developments - such as automated vehicle platoons – are harder to imagine and will require research.
As towns and cities expand, pressure to rationalise competing priorities for road-space will grow. It will be vital to harness ITS for a variety of transport management measures. In metropolitan areas integrated public transport operations that interface with traffic management systems will become increasingly important. They will provide reliable public transport services as well as reducing the traffic load and environmental burden. The needs of cyclists, pedestrians and other vulnerable road users have also to be considered and integrated. See Safety of Vulnerable Road Users and Vulnerable Road Users
In Road Network Operations ITS helps to improve decision making in real time by transport network controllers and other users – thereby improving the operation of the entire transport system. In future, self-recognition systems will have a part to play in traffic management, travel substitution and “smart” access controls, taking account of the individual characteristics of the vehicle, the load and the journey purpose.
On our highways, better logic, connectivity and knowledge of the spatial requirements is needed for the dynamic allocation of traffic priorities in time and space. This is the case also for journey planning, goods distribution and freight logistics and for demand-responsive collective transport modes. The automated highway or a “smart” intersection will also require a kinaesthetic capability.
Traffic management tools aim to optimise the operation of transport networks in time and space. Although there are clear benefits from “smart” traffic management, it also introduces the risk of gridlock and a “superjam” in the event of system failure, making things much worse. Future systems need to be robust and intelligent enough to deal with worst case scenarios. This is particularly so if the vehicles themselves are automated.
There are other reasons for incorporating more intelligence into integrated road transport and mobility management systems.
First, today’s traffic management and control systems show limitations when facing critical traffic conditions and widespread congestion. This is an almost permanent problem in many metropolitan and urban areas and is often caused by a locally conceived analysis of traffic behavior – when more strategic, high-level control methods, such as demand management, are required. See Demand Management
Secondly, the role of human operators in traffic management centres is still crucial in day-by-day operations. No matter how sophisticated and advanced the traffic control technology is, the “person in the loop” paradigm still prevails today in most centralised traffic control systems. See Human Performance and Traffic Control Centres
Thirdly, the introduction and progressive integration of extended monitoring and management facilities in the new generation of ITS architectures (for example improved road condition monitoring, traffic monitoring, incident detection, collective and individual route guidance systems) has prompted demand for increased, on-line operator support tools. These are to help cope with the complexity of the data to be managed and the resulting, integrated traffic management schemes. See Network Monitoring
Intelligent traffic management systems need to be capable of analysing traffic behaviour and its evolution in a similar way to an expert traffic controller. These systems – for example, self-learning autonomic management systems may replace human operators in the future – and will certainly act as intelligent assistants that cooperate in defining and applying traffic control decisions. Several techniques are being applied in this context including evolutionary algorithms, knowledge-based systems, neural networks and multi-agent systems. See Traffic Management Strategies and System Monitoring
SMART ROADS
“Smart Roads” – an International Road Research Board (IR2B) report from 2013 provides a good example of how to visualise a smart road and what needs to be put in place from a research perspective to produce Smart Roads. The diagram at the end of the report demonstrates that Smart Roads are not just an infrastructure and technical problem – but involve a wide range of issues and interdependencies including societal, economic and environmental challenges, as well as user expectations.
Future dynamic traffic management systems will be required to support network-wide, pro-active traffic management and to replace locally-oriented, reactive traffic management that is common today. Improved intelligence is also needed to deal with the huge amount of real time traffic data generated from detectors and other sources (for example probe vehicles that are equipped to report their position and traffic conditions in real time). The data needs to be interpreted and analysed by the operators to support the decision making process.
Quite how users will embrace and respond to the plethora of emerging new technologies in the transport arena is difficult to forecast. There is a risk of over-dependency with a corresponding loss of skill, and this can be unsettling if systems fail. While choice is often promoted as a desirable objective, many people are overwhelmed by the reality of too many options. See User Centred Design
We need to consider the impact of technology on people, in a world of increasing complexity and change, of seamless near-ubiquitous connectivity, pervasive monitoring and information processing.
What if things slow down because people refuse to take up new technology? Worse, what if a “luddite” mentality takes hold or new under-classes emerge who protest against the systems because they are unable to benefit? Will more bureaucratic control be required in setting rules and protocols to ensure that everything functions smoothly? Transparency in the regulation and certification of these systems may be central to securing public confidence.
ITS is destined to play a key role in vehicles and for travellers using a variety of platforms: smart phones, tablet computers, information kiosks, in-vehicle displays, hand-held or wearable devices. These different platforms offer the potential for real-time information on inter-modal connections and guidance for the traveller to navigate through an unfamiliar interchange. Other developments include navigation for blind and partially sighted pedestrians.
Timely traveller information is now regarded as a key feature for a successful transport system. Today’s transportation consumers must manage their time effectively. Significant uncertainty associated with waiting for a bus or train is unacceptable to most people.
“Smart travellers” expect to have comprehensive information about multiple modes, including traffic information, available to them quickly, in one place or from one source, and on a variety of media. See Traveller Services. Artificial Intelligence techniques have much to offer:
Many consumers are unaware of all of their transport options. The use of personalised information-based technologies can expand traveller choices and facilitate delivery of more convenient services, potentially increasing public transport patronage. Personalisation, if it is to be of value, requires the development of a spatial logic and connectivity that is adapted to the particular user.
Short-term traffic prediction is of great importance to real-time traveller information and route guidance systems. Such systems can only be successful if they are able to convince the driver to change their behaviour. Although traveller information systems have already reached a high technical standard, the reaction of road users to this information and the means of modifying their behaviour is not well explored.
Only relevant information of high quality, provided by a service that is easily accessible, has the potential to change flawed perceptions, for example car-drivers in relation to public transport. The impact on modal shift is likely to be fairly limited unless the whole trip, door-to-door, by public transport is made into a stress-free, seamless experience.
Intelligent navigation systems support individual travellers (usually drivers) by providing information about the shortest possible routes, the actual traffic situation and alternative routes. In combination with context information, near-term prediction and knowledge of personal journey preferences, navigation can become more intelligent.
The effectiveness of navigation systems as a means of relieving congestion is less clear. With widespread use, it is easy to see that congestion is simply transferred to the routes suggested by the guidance system. Route guidance systems as they exist today merely result in spreading the load, temporarily relieving existing capacity problems. Increasingly these systems will have to address the need for dynamic routing depending on information from traffic management centres, connected vehicles and from other travellers (crowdsourcing).
The vision of a smart traveller goes beyond the provision of accurate route guidance and reliable travel information to a vision of a “seamless journey”. As well as the need to move from point A to point B, a number of other services and facilities are used. The mobile Internet has brought about a revolution in how these services are sold and marketed. On-line booking has changed the way we plan our journeys. Travel and other location-based services are being integrated into single packages, but more can be done. The figure below shows a vision for seamless journeys.
Vision for Seamless Journeys (Source: European Commission Rosetta Project, 2003)
On-line, location-based information, concierge (yellow pages), tourist and entertainment services are now widely available - whether the user is on foot, a passenger on public transport, or driving. With an abundance of information available, the need for context- specific and user-specific selection will grow. There will be commercial value in applying successful Artificial Intelligence methods to filter out the unwanted data and capture value and relevance.
The automobile will remain the most important traffic means in everyday life for the foreseeable future. The increase of vehicle safety is therefore one of the most important needs to be addressed by ITS technologies. The distinctive feature will be the awareness of the vehicle, of its environment and its driver’s behaviour. For instance, emulating the diverse functions that drivers perform every day: observing the road, observing the preceding vehicles, steering, accelerating, braking, and deciding when and where to change course.
The push to develop “smart cars” using Artificial Intelligence is part of a wider effort on the part of automotive manufacturers to respond to environmental requirements. Safety technologies already available include traction control, adaptive cruise control, intelligent speed adaptation, collision warning and avoidance systems, driver drowsiness detectors, night and bad weather visions systems, truck roll-over warning systems (See Driver Support).
Critical applications include driver and vehicle surveillance. Accidents are caused by driver inattention or from following the vehicle in front too closely. Ambient Intelligence will offer the opportunity to monitor the driver’s physical condition, diagnose signs of incapability to drive, warn the driver and intelligently influence his behaviour. An important limiting factor may be the reluctance of the driver to accept external control.
In the USA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has established an official classification system:
We are on the threshold of the first age of fully automated motoring. The future belongs to innovative driver-assistance technology. See Warning and Control Systems. Sooner or later, these systems will revolutionise active vehicle safety - much in the same spectacular way that electronic stabilisation programs (ESP) have done. Their objective is to prevent accidents using control technology such as an automatic emergency brake assist or the attention control feature that prevents drivers falling asleep at the wheel.
There is some opinion that increasing automation may not necessarily lead to improved safety in the longer term due to effects sometimes described as “risk homeostasis”. This is counterproductive behavioural adaptation when drivers start behaving in riskier ways as a result of a perceived increase in safety provided by ITS (or any other) devices. These effects have not been extensively researched and are often speculative.
Eventually people may prefer automated control to human control in a growing number of situations. However increasing automation raises many issues of risk and investment management. There will be major issues about the rate of deployment of these vehicle control systems once it becomes clear that major reductions in accidents can be achieved using these systems compared with leaving the drivers in control. Testing, responsibility and accountability of intelligent systems are also major issues. Who will guarantee the collective behaviour of multiple vehicles?
The first-generation of vehicle-highway automation envisages automated vehicles operating on existing roads with no extensive infrastructure modifications required. Most of the required intelligence will be built into vehicles rather than the infrastructure. These vehicles will operate at spacings closer than commuter flows of today, with traffic flow benefits achieved through vehicle-cooperative systems as well as vehicle-infrastructure cooperation. See Coordinated Vehicle Highway Systems
Automated vehicles may cluster in 'designated lanes' which are also open to normal vehicles, or may be allowed on high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes to increase their proximity to one another – to realise the benefits of cooperative operations. Stabilisation of traffic flow and modest increases in capacity are seen as the key outcomes.
Once this level of functionality is proven and in broad use, a second generation scenario comes into play which expands to dedicated lanes, presumably desired by a user population with a high percentage of automation-capable vehicles.
With growing use, networks of automated vehicle lanes would develop, offering the high levels of per-lane capacity achievable through close-headway operations where vehicles are closely spaced. However, this type of evolution may take a while. First generation automation for passenger vehicles and trucks is already here, with estimates for second-generation implementation in prospect.
The key technical challenges that remain to be mastered involve software safety, system security, and malfunction management. The non-technical challenges are issues of liability, costs, and perceptions. See Legal and Regulatory Issues, Contracts and Engagement with ITS. It is also important to recognise that automated vehicles are already carrying millions of passengers every day. Many major airports have automated people movers that transfer passengers among terminal buildings. Modern commercial aircraft operate on autopilot for much of the time, and they also land under automatic control at suitably equipped airports on a regular basis.
In the long term it seems unlikely that technological difficulties will hinder the widespread introduction of intelligent vehicles and highway systems. It is more likely to be a sceptical and wary public that is the barrier to acceptance. How will humans cope with increased automation of the driving task? Who wants to share the road with a convoy of 40-tonne driverless lorries? Or are we heading towards the time when human driving will become a form of extreme sport to be allowed only within controlled areas?