The world is an ever-changing place. Global demographic trends predict continuing population growth – with a substantial increase in the ageing population and greater concentration in urban areas. This has major consequences in every area of the global economy and for society as a whole. There will be significant impacts on transport. Pressing environmental issues include global warming, security of energy supply, air quality, land use, along with transport resilience in the face of major weather events. Societal issues include accessibility, inclusivity, safety and security for all sectors of the population including children, the elderly, disabled, and the working and non-working populations. These are all factors which have a bearing on the future development of ITS systems. Together they represent an increasingly complex set of challenges for those seeking to plan and deliver sustainable transport systems. They also require planners to look to the future and explore:
When will the future be the present? And just how “smart” do solutions need to be? Smart does not necessarily have to mean ‘technologically advanced’. A solution can be considered smart because it is used intelligently. We are, for example, using high-visibilty road signs and retro-reflective road markings to improve driver safety and ease of navigation without having to distract the driver with in-car systems.
The roads and highway infrastructure and vehicle fleet are not going to change overnight; we are not suddenly going to be in a position where all vehicles have smart dashboards with headup displays. In reality traditional and new systems will co-exist side by side in use together. Legacy systems may have a great influence on future directions.
Every new or advanced system will be a legacy one at some point in the future. Legacy in the context of road network operations means the investment that has been made to date in infrastructure and equipment across the entire road network. This includes, for instance, computers, communications, data systems and software. Legacy systems are often operating long after new and better systems are available that have increased functionality and reliability. The legacy may represent a sizable investment. It is not only a matter of tried and tested designs and proven equipment, but also the accumulated knowledge and experience of the people that work with them. Just because equipment is old, potentially outdated and outmoded, doesn’t mean it should be thrown away. A degree of future proofing, to delay technological obsolescence, can be achieved by designing new systems as “open systems” and by adopting open standards to give scope for replacing components or modifying systems.
An incremental approach to innovation may reduce potential risks. Added value can sometimes be achieved by integrating a range of applications into a single system. For example, equipment installed for spot-speed enforcement may in future be used for additional enforcement activities (such as different types of speed control, weigh-in-motion and license plate recognition of wanted vehicles). The aim is to make best use of the infrastructure that is already there: telecommunications network, power supply, roadside and gantry installations.
The greatest impact on transport demand arises from population growth, the increase in number of households and their location and associated levels of economic activity. A key challenge is to predict likely changes in living and mobility patterns. An elusive goal - in the interests of transport demand management and environmental sustainability - is to try to decouple the close link between economic growth and increased transport demand. Possible ways of doing this, which futures work needs to address are:
This may involve looking at areas such as:
In June 2013 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations published its predictions for World Population until the end of the 21st Century (See Figure below).The medium range forecast was for an increase of over 50% by the end of the century (7.2bn in 2013 to 8.1bn in 2025; 9.6bn in 2050; 10.9bn in 2100).
Forecasts of World Population 1950-2100 (Source: United Nations, 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, New York)
Population growth is estimated to be highest in developing economies at over 60% (5.9bn in 2013 to 9.6bn in 2100), whereas the population of the developed world is thought likely to remain fairly static, with an increase of less than 3% (1.25bn in 2013 to 1.28bn in 2100).
The characteristics of the profile of the population, in terms of age, gender, ethnic and cultural composition, personal mobility, where and how they live – will be affected by migration and seasonal fluctuations – and will all impact on transport demand, mobility patterns and preferences, infrastructure needs and services. The number of people of core working age (25-59) in developing economies, for example, is predicted to increase by 57% in (2.6bn in 2013 to 4.1bn in 2100). In the developed world, the corresponding population is predicted to peak in 2013 and reduce by 17% by the end of the century (608m in 2013 to 504m by 2100).
Further information on population changes is available in the report for the United Nations’ Department for Economic and Social Affairs ‘World Population Prospects – The 2012 Revision’ This presents the UN’s updated population estimates and projections – and synthesises them with the findings of recent demographic surveys from around the world.
A key trend in the distribution of the world’s population in the 21st Century is greater urbanisation. A report commissioned by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed that for OECD countries, by 1950, the urban population was already larger than the rural population (See below). Wider world trends towards urbanisation - reached the same milestone in 2006. The UN predicts that by 2050, 70% of the world’s population and 86% of the population of OECD countries will live in cities. Today there are 33 ‘megacities’ with populations in excess of 10 million people, 11 of which have more than 20 million people.
Urban and Rural Population Forecasts 1950-2030 (Source: Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What Lessons for China?, OECD).
This huge growth in urbanisation increases the demand for housing, associated utilities and services including transport infrastructure, public transport, vehicle parking and better integration between the urban, inter-urban and national transport networks. In turn, this leads to increased pressure on land use and development within or around urban areas contributing to land shortages, urban sprawl and decline of the agricultural sector in rural areas. The issues will be how to service accessibility and mobility for these communities - or find solutions which reduce travel dependency.
Useful information on urbanisation is provided in the OECD report ‘Trends in Urbanisation and Urban Policies in OECD Countries: What Lessons for China’ It synthesises trends in urbanisation and urban policies in OECD countries – and one of its key messages for China is that a successful urban development strategy should build upon an urban region’s own characteristics - not simply its infrastructure, but also the knowledge and skills of its workers.
The Green and ITS book (edited by SWECO-ITS) describes how Stockholm is using ITS to reduce environmental impact from transport and the development of a true sustainable transport system.
A major challenge arising from changing demographics is the increasing proportion of the population living into old age. This is a result of increasing life expectancy linked to declining mortality. A major study by the United Nations, predicted that the percentage of the population over 60 years of age would increase by 13% over the 100 year period between 1950-2050 (from 8% in 1950; to 10% in 2000; to 21% in 2050). This ageing population will affect transport both directly and indirectly through factors such as the make-up of the workforce, the numbers of youthful and ageing vehicle drivers. There will also be an increased demand for improved accessibility and greater mobility assistance for those less able to travel independently, new technologies to enable them to drive safely, and alternative services if this is not affordable or possible.
Further information on the ageing population is available from the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ 2002 report ‘World Population Ageing 1950-2050’. It describes global trends in population ageing and addresses characteristics of the ageing process in different regions and countries. The aim is to assist policy makers to define, formulate and evaluate goals and programmes - and to raise public awareness and support for any policy changes needed.
The demographic changes will require efficient management of large, urban transport networks and their connections with national networks and international gateways. Quick to implement ITS technologies provide flexible solutions to rapid change and have a key role to play alongside the lengthier process of planning, implementing and adapting large infrastructure projects (such as major roads, metros, railways and airports). This provides opportunities for market-driven ITS applications for consumers. For transport authorities, the key consideration is to be aware of anticipated changes in travel patterns in the short-to-medium term (the 10 to 15 years which mirrors the typical lifecycle of ITS technology) and to design transport management systems around those changes.
Information and control systems must serve, and be understood by, all sections of the population if they are to be effective, inclusive and acceptable. They also need to be adapted to the needs of travellers with disabilities. Presentation of information in appropriate sensory forms (audible, visual, tactile) should therefore form a key element of the design of future ITS systems (See Human Factors).
Road transport is a major consumer of energy and has profound environmental impacts. The effects of transportation are complex and widespread. Air, water, land-use, animals and habitats are just a few of the domains affected at the local, regional and global level.
Transport is the third largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions (14.3%) - with road transport alone responsible for almost three quarters of that (10.5%) according to the World Resources Institute. In Europe, whilst emissions from other sectors have declined, transport emissions increased by 36% between 1990-2007 - despite improved vehicle efficiency – as a result of the overall increase in use of personal and freight transport.
Although transport provides many positive benefits for the individual as well as the economy and society as a whole, it is also one of the greatest obstacles to sustainable development. Unrestrained growth in traffic will continue to exacerbate the problems of traffic congestion and pollution.
People are becoming increasingly concerned about this and a new transport consensus is emerging that recognises that building more roads to meet increasing demand for road transport is not a sustainable option. Instead the focus is on making more effective use of existing infrastructure through better operational management and publicly acceptable ways of reducing demand and increasing capacity. This requires a comprehensive approach to transport and land use planning - fully integrated with policies, measures and technologies which support more sustainable transport. ITS has a key role to play in this new integrated approach.
A major challenge facing resource-dependent countries all over the world is to secure reliable and undistorted access to the raw materials needed for manufacturing and the economy as a whole. This includes rare earth elements that are widely used in road transport and ITS applications such as catalytic converters, flat panel displays, petroleum refining, permanent magnets and rechargeable batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles. The main threat is vulnerability of supply - arising from their rarity, the cost of extraction, supply and transformation, and political factors compromising security of supply, all of which may act to increase costs.
In June 2010 the European Commission published a report that analysed 41 raw materials and identified 14 as being critical to the European Union’s (EU) economy. The figure below shows the concentration of their production across the world. They are just as relevant to other industrialised and developing economies in terms of supply and demand. Several form key components of emerging technologies and ITS applications. Of particular concern are the raw materials below used in the production of the following technologies and transport applications:
Shortages of the specific raw materials for ITS components and applications may not have been a major cause of concern in the past. However, today, it is becoming increasingly important with any technology, to factor in future dependencies on the supply of raw materials when developing or deploying applications - whether it be sensitivity to price, rarity or political instability affecting supply. The EU’s 2010 report on defining critical raw materials is recommended to be updated every 5 years. There will be other reports on these issues for other regions of the world which could provide a useful source of information source when making assessments of ITS dependency on raw materials.
In the past, technological progress in exploring, mining and processing raw materials has helped supply to keep up with demand and reduce the costs of extraction and transformation. The value of these scarce resources puts pressure on countries to adopt industrial strategies and measures which distort international trade and investment in the raw materials market. This can involve the imposition of export taxes, quotas, subsidies, price-fixing or restrictive investment rules. Where measures are at odds with international trade agreements - such as those of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) – arbitration and formal dispute procedures may offer a remedy to signatory governments.
Production of Critical Raw Materials (Source: Memo/10/263, 17 June 2010, European Commission)
The European Union’s 2010 ‘Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials’ aimed to develop a methodology to assess criticality and apply it to a selection of raw materials to determine which were the most critical to the European economy.
The United Nations Earth Summit in 2014 reported that energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase under a ‘business as usual’ scenario by nearly 50% in 2030 compared with 2009. In 2009, transport was already responsible for consuming one-fifth of energy use - and contributed around one-quarter of energy-related global greenhouse gas emissions. Road transport and the internal combustion engine, reliant on fossil fuels, accounts for the lion’s share of transport emissions.
As the global stock of vehicles increases, so will global emissions - unless new technologies and measures are developed and implemented to stop and reverse the trend. This includes road vehicles powered by alternative and renewable fuels and supported by an effective refuelling infrastructure, technology to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles, their interaction with the road infrastructure and driver behaviour. It also includes measures that reduce the demand for travel, compact city planning, large-scale expansion of public transport systems and promotion of non-motorised transport. Apart from the environmental challenges, the issue of fossil fuelled transport needs to be tackled since fossil fuels are a finite resource.
In 2007 the World Energy Council (WEC) published its ‘Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050’. This analysed the shifting energy needs and technology solutions for transport over the next 40 years. It assessed existing and potential fuel and vehicle technologies - both qualitatively and quantitatively. The aim was to develop a roadmap of technologies and measures needed to meet the WEC’s objective of sustainable energy. It outlined the policies needed to achieve the objective. Sustainability was measured in terms of:
The qualitative measure was how far each technology contributed to reduced consumption.
One of the key trends identified was a shift from largely petrochemical-powered passenger vehicles in 2020 towards an era in 2050 with a significantly higher proportion of both hybrid vehicles powered by renewables (biofuel and hydrogen) and pure electric vehicles. This gradual change in the primary fuel source for personal travel is likely to require greater integration between the transportation and energy sectors. ITS technologies may help integrate energy management systems as part of a wider e-mobility solution.
The World Energy Council produces an annual Energy Issues Monitor. Its 2014 edition assessed key energy issues in terms of their level of impact and uncertainty in the future. It is worthwhile tracking these assessments to identify the energy issues that may impact on mobility trends/patterns and mobility technology in the future.
Further information on energy and fuels is available from the World Energy Council’s study.
There is increasing scientific consensus that global warming is under way, linked in part to human activity. If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are to be stabilised, efforts to reduce them will need to be sustained over many decades at a global scale. To meet the challenge of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions, new forms of propulsion for vehicles are being introduced (electric, hybrid and fuel cell drives) whilst traditional petrochemical engines have become more efficient.
Since climate change cannot be prevented entirely, it will also be necessary to adapt to it. For transport this will mean finding new ways to plan for, detect and respond to extreme weather events – smart transport, energy and communications infrastructure, materials and vehicle components, smart detection and maintenance technologies, new organisational models. ITS technologies have a role to play.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. Its 2014 report highlighted the threats posed by weather-related events to critical infrastructure (energy, communications and transport).
Danish Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change
Part of a future transport strategy could be to assess the impact of changing weather patterns on transport infrastructure and put in place plans to improve the resilience of the transport networks to changing weather patterns and severe weather events. An example of this is the Danish Road Directorate’s strategy for adapting to climate change, which was developed in 2013.
The IPCC also develops scenarios to predict the impacts on global temperatures and weather patterns - of increases and decreases in greenhouse gases. Particular attention is focused on carbon dioxide, as one of the major gases produced as a result of the use of petrochemical and other carbon-based fuels in transportation networks.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Climate Summit 2014
The 2014 Climate Summit announced that a shift towards more sustainable transport is essential to achieve the internationally agreed goal of a maximum rise of 2 degrees Celsius in average global temperature. The alternative was a doubling of transport’s greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the twenty first century (2050). The International Energy Agency estimated that a shift to sustainable, low-carbon transport in the same time-frame, could save governments, companies and individuals up to US$70 trillion. The IPCC announced several initiatives to put the transport sector on track towards a low-carbon future. These included one on Urban Electric Mobility - to increase the number of electric vehicles in cities to 30% of all new vehicles sold annually by 2030, whilst simultaneously developing the enabling infrastructure for their effective use.
Further information on climate change is available from the IPCC’s website.
Road transport is a major source of pollution contributing to poor air quality and noise distrurbance – particularly in urban areas, alongside busy roads and nearby major transport interchanges such as airports and bus stations. Air pollutants from transport include nitrogen oxides, particles, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. All have a damaging impact on the health of people, animals and habitats locally. Road traffic noise is linked to hypertension, sleep loss, changes in heart rate and stress.
Over the past 30 years or so, there has been significant progress in reducing vehicle related air pollution and noise. This has resulted primarily from improvements in the technology for fuel vehicle systems, the use of catalytic converters to treat combustion products, the development of cleaner burning fuels, the introduction of alternative and renewable fuels and electric vehicles, and eco-friendly driver-vehicle applications.
Despite the gains there is a risk that increases numbers of vehicles on the road will erode the benefits. Similarly, new developments can often bring unintended negative consequences. The silence of electric vehicles for instance can increase the risk of incidents and accidents with pedestrians, cyclists and other vulnerable road users leading to a demand to design-in noise.
World Health Organisation – Air Quality and Health
In 2014 the World Health Organisation (WHO) produced a report analysing premature deaths across the world in 2012 that were attributable to ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor) air pollution. It found that some 7 million deaths could be attributed to their joint effects (3.7 million were related to outdoor air quality issues) - making air pollution one of the world’s largest environmentally related health risks.
The ability to adapt to environmental threats, without causing major impacts, is often based on the level of resilience of the networks under threat. When planning ITS deployments it is good practice to undertake scenario planning to try to understand how the deployments will be affected in different and sometimes extreme circumstances. These may point to a need to put in place backup systems for power and communications for elements of the ITS infrastructure. An example might be systems to divert travellers away from flooded parts of the transport network.
In the future there may be restrictions on when and where certain types of vehicle can be used. Low emissions zones have been introduced in some cities for different types of vehicles – and ITS play a role in monitoring and enforcing them. Similarly the use of ITS to manage vehicle speeds and reduce them can result in a reduction in the amount of fuel used by vehicle and its consequential levels of carbon dioxide emissions (See Speed Management). The introduction of electric vehicles has led to new forms of refuelling infrastructure as well as the development of e-mobility management systems for vehicles - due to the shorter range of pure electric vehicles and the need to efficiently manage that range.
From an ITS perspective technology can be used to monitor air pollution and manage transport emissions in the following ways:
The global demographic and environmental challenges are forcing us to consider innovative and sometimes radical approaches to travel and transport – making best use of information, new technologies and applications.
The expectation is that accurate and dependable information will allow transport users to choose travel options that match their needs, modify trip departure times, or even reschedule events to take advantage of better travel conditions and travel times. Putting information in the hands of consumers is critical in managing metropolitan-wide traffic volumes and congestion. The more pressure that can be taken off congested periods and locations, the quicker it will clear and allow traffic to flow. Using data analytics, a clear and complete view of the traffic conditions can be obtained helping to optimise its management.
The need to achieve a more environmentally sustainable and efficient transport system is driving developments to achieve reduced carbon emission targets and make better use of road capacity.
Social media is transforming the way that business is carried out. The message to ITS practitioners (from both the public and private sectors) is to harness its power.
Manage your relationship with your customers – the road users:
Crowd source vital information:
Potential Outcomes:
Social media are already proving to be an effective way of acquiring and sharing information, in real-time, on disruption to transport networks and alternative travel options. Facebook and Twitter come into their own in these situations – for example, the 2010 volcanic ash cloud across Europe which brought large parts of the aviation industry to a halt and during the heavy monsoon rains in Mumbai in 2014 which flooded the roads and metro network. In Queensland and Victoria (Australia) in 2010-11, community-initiated Facebook groups - sourcing their information from road and weather authorities, police and other emergency services – provided vital intelligence about road closures and flooding.
Social media also offers a free platform to let the world know who you are and what you do – to establish your brand and manage your profile and relationship with customers. A presence in social media enables you to manage a constructive dialogue fans and critics alike. Failure to engage can leave organisations without a voice to counter criticism.
According to a 2012 American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Social Media Survey, Twitter remains the most-used social media outreach tool for State Departments for Transportation (DOTs) in the USA - with 88% (37 of 42) saying they use Twitter in some way to share information. In 2011, only 31 out of 38 agencies reported using Twitter and in 2010 only 26 agencies of 32 surveyed reported using the tool as part of their public engagement strategy. This shows that some public agencies have still to recognise the value of social media for communicating with road users.
To get the most out of any social media activities, a strategy for engagement is needed: who to target, what are the messages, and how best to do it? The strategy needs to be kept under review to take account of new media and technology and changes in business priorities. As social networks multiply and develop new functionalities it is unlikely that road authorities and road managers will be early adopters to help deliver their core business. They are more likely to wait until there is some stability in market usage to determine which media are the most appropriate platforms for them. They will then need a knowledge of the profile and preferences of their customers (the road users) to help identify which social networks and technology platforms are likely to be most useful to target.
Engagement with social media needs to be properly resourced. Among the challenges that public agencies face, are staffing, training, capacity building and engagement policy. Some agencies are expanding their communications teams whilst others expect existing teams to manage their growing social media footprint whilst also maintaining more traditional outreach activities.
Eco-mobility is a general term to cover vehicle technologies, driving techniques, traffic management and other policies and measures that support more environmentally friendly transport of people and freight. Many of the emerging concepts make use of ITS to achieve carbon reduction targets through reduced air pollution and more efficient energy use. Promising developments are in smoothing traffic signal operations and lane management to optimise traffic throughput, alongside regulatory and policy instruments to help travellers to make “green” travel choices and reduce their environmental impact.
This ITS application is similar to current traffic signal systems but the objective is to optimise the performance of traffic signals for the environment. Data from vehicles (vehicle location, speed, and emissions data) is obtained using connected vehicle technologies. This is processed to develop signal timing strategies aimed at minimising stop/start conditions thereby reducing fuel consumption and overall emissions at the intersection, along a corridor, or for a region.
This ITS application, illustrated in the figure below allows public transport or freight vehicles to request signal priority at an intersection taking account of vehicle’s location, speed, type (such as hybrid or alternative fuelled vehicles). It assess associated emission data to determine whether priority should be granted.
Source: Eco-Signal Operations Concept of Operations, US Department of Transportation, 2014)
This approach is similar to High Occupancy Vehicle lanes (HOV lanes), with dedicated freeway lanes optimised to encourage use by vehicles operating in eco-friendly ways. The lanes may support variable speed limits, eco-cooperative adaptive cruise control and vehicle platooning applications, and wireless inductive/resonance charging infrastructure embedded in the roadway.
Electro-Mobility, also known as eMobility, refers to clean and efficient transport, using electric road vehicles powered either by batteries or by hydrogen fuel cells. Some may have an auxiliary internal combustion engine (hybrid) for extended use or to maintain the battery’s charge. Battery powered electric vehicles are gaining in importance with automotive manufacturers investing in the technology. Those leading the innovation range from small two-man teams to major multinational corporations and automotive companies.
In Europe, electric vehicles are increasingly being deployed in the market – but their large-scale adoption relies on investment in a networked charging infrastructure to extend their range. This requires investment in the development of ‘intelligent’ electricity distribution systems - or smartgrids - upgraded electricity networks, with intelligent metering and monitoring capabilities. Both the vehicles and infrastructure required for electro-mobility offer opportunities for further development of ITS in support of sustainable mobility.
An example of a concept for infrastructure development is wireless inductive/resonance charging (illustrated below) which uses magnetic fields to wirelessly transmit large electric currents between metal coils placed along the roadway several feet apart.
Inductive Resonance Charging (Source: James Provost ©IEEE)
Roadside charging infrastructure can also support static charging capable of transferring electric power to a vehicle parked in a garage or on the street and vehicles stopped at a traffic signal or a stop sign.
Alongside market opportunities is the issue of the role of governments. They can leave things to market forces or take measures to promote electric vehicle deployment in support of wider societal goals such as sustainability and urban livability.
Intelligent Transport Systems have provided new opportunities for improving the safety and efficiency of the road network. This includes the development of intelligent vehicles, connected by wireless networks to the roadside infrastructure – the “connected vehicle”(See Coordinated Vehicle Highway Systems).
Wireless technology is revolutionizing almost every aspect of daily life. The change is crossing all boundaries but nowhere is it more obvious than in cars. The falling price of hardware and wireless access are making the mass adoption of Connected Vehicles a more tangible reality. Large wireless telecommunications carriers and automotive manufacturers are working together to roll-out connected vehicles and mobile applications in response to new market opportunities. It’s not just the public that needs to be preparing itself for the forthcoming influx of connected vehicles. Public agencies need to position themselves intelligently, too, and in some countries, notably the USA and Japan, they need to be ready for Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) enabled connected vehicles.
The case for investing in the connected vehicle and co-operative systems from a road network operations perspective will concern safety benefits, improvement in operations and fewer traffic law violations. From the road operators’ point of view any developments that enable flexibility and feedback in operations including road pricing, emissions monitoring, crash avoidance and monitoring road network conditions will also be welcome. This will require co-operation between road authorities and the automotive industry and the exchange of data between vehicle and infrastructure.
This is no longer a research concept but a reality, with applications that fall into four different, but not necessarily separate, areas:
One area where the connected vehicle could have an impact in future is in helping to reduce congestion on motorways and other major roads. Squeezing more vehicles onto our already crowded highways is a much cheaper and more viable option than road widening. Systems which control (and shorten) the headway between vehicles offer the prospect of a major increase in highway capacity. For drivers the ‘automated highway’ could deliver better fuel efficiency by avoiding stop/start traffic flow and eliminate vehicle collisions (See Fully Automated Driving).
To be successful, vehicles will need to be fitted with the necessary (interoperable) technology and the traffic control system would need to balance traffic capacity on the highway with and the capacity of access and egress points and the surrounding arterial network. In addition the overall system would need to accommodate unequipped vehicles (for example by restricting them to certain lanes).
A more futuristic form of automation would be to create a centralised system to manage vehicle door to door journeys by allocating “slots” to individual vehicles based on operational priorities and road user pre-booking/payment options. The advantage for the network operator is the possibility of maximising use of network capacity and reducing congestion – and for drivers, shorter commutes and improved journey time reliability.
There are potential disadvantages posed by a central computer which knows the location of vehicles at all times where we are all the time. There are bound to be concerns about privacy; introducing new areas of risk and system security; and for many drivers, loss of control - takin away the pleasure of driving.
From the road network operator’s perspective, issues still to be addressed are – whether data from a vehicle can be used to:
The consumerisation of technology has had a massive impact on the transportation industry. Smartphones, and their companion data plans, are now widely available and increasingly affordable to a greater proportion of the population. The phones themselves, become information sources as well as a platform for pushing out travel information messages or as a means for making electronic payments.
Understanding the challenges and the opportunities posed by the explosion in data, and the value that data analytics can bring is fundamental. The use of natural language processing, graph analytics, distributed computing, machine learning, and predictive analytics - makes it possible to realise its latent value. The data can help inform the provision of better, more targeted services at reduced cost by making better use of the available infrastructure. However the data has to be extracted and aggregated or translated into information from which it is possible to identify new patterns and trends, increase automation, optimise business processes, improve efficiency or productivity.
The transportation industry is no newcomer to the world of business analytics or the collection of data, but, until recently, the data sources were not connected. Data collection, its analysis and its communication are major tools for planning and managing transport networks and services. Road network operators have been able to monitor traffic on the network and specific roads for decades but did not necessarily know anything about the individual user. For instance what were the journey origins and destinations? Was it a regular route – and how regular? The road network operator was missing access to this type of information that could help improve traffic management plans or monitor the effects of demand management schemes. Each transport and network operator used standalone systems, which did not communicate with each other.
Concern for the future of the environment has put the spotlight on energy conservation and pollution control. By using analytical data to understand driver behaviour, it has proved possible to put in place measures to persuade drivers to adopt different travel habits such as eco-driving or using public transport. The aim is to reduce roadway and parking congestion and protect the environment, while offering more convenience to customers.
Key issues in the future will include how to:
“Crowdsourcing” is a way of obtaining information on a volunteer basis from large groups of people, particularly the online community. The phrase was coined by the US journalist, Jeff Howe, to capture the interactive nature of gathering information from a crowd. Although the technique was used in the mid-nineteenth century, it has become part of popular culture and business in the internet era – which is why it usually involves a network community in the World Wide Web. People find it is in their own self-interest to participate in the collective sharing of data, views and other information that will influence and improve the performance of a particular application, measure or product. An example is the crowdsourcing of local information for navigation applications that benefit a specific user group such as cyclists or people with a disability.
Crowdsourcing exploits the idea of group intelligence, which means that the decisions of a diverse group of individuals can achieve the same or better result as expert opinion. It relies on the enthusiasm of the people in the crowd.
The motivation of contributors is the key factor in the success of any crowdsourcing initiative. Where people see no self-interest from contributing to a crowd sourcing initiative, other means of motivation will be needed to encourage their participation and generate a sufficient number to deliver useful real-time data. Traditional rewards, such as money, discounts or prizes, may not be appropriate – or the value of the reward may be perceived as too low to motivate contributors. A potential solution can be the use of “gamification” which applies gaming principles to encourage engagement with a task – making the task more attractive. Rewards tap into subjective feelings, such as personal status – and may range from simple scoreboards to more complex incentives such as attaining higher levels of difficulty. A European project, METPEX, used gamification to complement traditional data gathering techniques to develop a “Pan-European Tool to Measure the Quality of the Passenger Experience”. Further background on gamification in ITS is available from a 2013 webinar hosted by ITS Europe (ERTICO).
There are many examples of public authorities and private enterprises beginning to use crowdsourcing and gamification to improve their business operations. For instance, a research project in Austria, TrafficCheck, funded by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology (BMVIT) relies on the mapping and tagging enthusiasm of its crowdsourcing contributors to intuitively rate the traffic quality and safety of signal-controlled intersections.
Real-time data is information that is collected and delivered immediately without any delay in the timeliness of the information provided. Real-time data is widely used in ITS applications including traffic monitoring, route navigation, and the tracking and tracing of freight. Players across virtually all transportation industries can exploit the benefits of real-time data from new and existing sources to develop services and applications that will transform the way that travellers and other stakeholders use the transportation network.
Transport data is growing at an astounding rate. However, data collected from a wide variety of sources is often unused or under-used. The sources may include social communications such as blogs, emails, videos, social media, photos and data collected by different applications and sensors. What makes their analysis difficult is their volume, the speed at which they arrive, their variety, and their ownership, authenticity, trustworthiness and reliability over the whole data life cycle. For example, the generation and collection of vehicle data is the subject of much speculation – in particular on who owns the data. Is it the vehicle manufacturer, the application developer, the service provider, the car owner, driver or the road authority where that data was generated?
Anytime, Anywhere, Any Device Accessibility. As cellular and wireless technologies mature, their speed, data capacity and ability to reach people will be unprecedented. They offer new opportunities and challenges. The purchase of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) is set to overtake desktop computers and laptops in a few years. Making content accessible on existing and emerging platforms and packaging it for the consumer is a challenge which will continue to evolve with technology and help drive innovation in ITS applications and services. Cloud computing, for example, by relying on shared computing resources, has the potential to reduce ITS development costs – as well as facilitate the development of low cost (installation and maintenance) scaleable ITS applications and services in the operational environment. Recent examples, which rely on cloud computing, include: regionalisation of urban traffic control and smart wireless road sensors to monitor pavement conditions or to map noise/pollution points.
This communications technology-driven and data-heavy reality will be amplified in road transportation as the automotive industry rolls out vehicles able to connect to the Internet at 4G or future speeds. Instrumented vehicles and vehicle fleets offer the possibility of rich data on mobility and safety that can help road network operators, vehicle fleet operators and road users alike. These vehicles will provide a low cost platform for acquiring data in real-time across all classes of road - covering not only congestion and travel times, but also trip origins, destinations micro-climate, skid resistance and pavement condition.
Connectivity to the vehicle enables connectivity throughout the value chain by adding partners. Embedded phones provide the basis for four main services currently on offer: emergency call, traffic information, destination information downloads and remote diagnostics.
Co-operative applications need stable long-term technology – at least for the life-time of the vehicle. Co-operative driving will need internationally harmonised standards and “trust” protocols for communications between vehicles and with the infrastructure. Safety systems will need very reliable low-latency communications with a split-second response. Current thinking favours installation of Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) but 4th and 5th generation cellular networks will soon provide other communications options. The technology itself need not be a barrier to deployment.
The choice of communications technology is however critical. Cellular data systems are available throughout the world and provide support for many ITS applications but do they provide a sufficiently reliable and responsive service for safety applications? DSRC systems have been developed which are optimised for these services, but who will pay for the deployment and maintenance of the dedicated infrastructure and how will it be used and managed? Commercial technologies are developing fast and the next generation is already being deployed. How long will it be before these services can support machine to machine communications? Is a hybrid solution the answer?
In summary, the automotive industry is engaged in bringing connected vehicles to market as rapidly as possible, based on profitable consumer-led features (GSM, hands-free mobile phones, mobile internet, Infotainment). The commercial business case, in the near-term, is based entirely on using existing telecommunications services rather than develop new dedicated systems. The connected vehicle marketplace is developing at a fast pace. Road operators and other transportation agencies need to engage now or be behind. The sooner public agencies start planning, providing, procuring, participating and positioning themselves in this connected world, the sooner they will be a “player” on behalf of the public good.