Thinking about the Future

When looking at the future of technology, a key concept put forward by Everett M Rogers in his book The Diffusion of Innovation, is the adoption and market penetration bell curve – represented in the figure below.

The bell-curve illustrates the importance of visionaries who spot the winners and are early adopters of new technology. It also illustrates how technologies which are in widespread use may fall into decline because of successful market penetration of new technologies. ITS technologies span this curve. For instance the potential for digital mapping and global positioning applications is currently expanding rapidly (for example in automatic accident notification). In contrast long-established means of communicating with drivers, such as text-based roadside variable message signs, may soon be displaced by alternatives (roadside and in-vehicle graphic displays).

The innovation and emerging sections of the curve are normally the preserve of research projects. Typically, standardisation takes place as the curve starts to expand. Caution is needed when considering major long-term investment in technologies that may be in decline. This is where legacy issues around maintenance and modification of existing systems become difficult – as system components may no longer be available. An example is 20 year old analogue standards for wired communications to traffic signal installations – which may not be supported indefinitely. In contrast, some technologies and products can be revitalised, reconfigured and relaunched in the market capturing the public imagination. This effectively moves them back along the bell curve away from decline to achieve expanding value. An example in the transport sector is the updating and reinvention of the bicycle to meet niche markets including city bicycle-hire fleets supported by ITS back office systems. A strategy to reduce the risk of technological obsolescence in ITS systems and applications, is to design them using established open standards (so far as possible).

An issue when looking at future trends, is whether a new technology will last more than a short period of time. In the past, the market in ITS-based products and services was not heavily influenced by fads and fashions in consumer electronics. This has been changing with the fast pace of technological change and the development and promotion of branded products that capture the public imagination. What at first sight might appear to be a short lived market trend may turn out to have a major impact in terms of technology take-up. The challenge is to see beyond the latest fad or fashion and try to spot the technologies that are going to mature into long lasting products.

A good example of this is social media. When it started, social media was a way of contacting long-lost school friends and acquaintances and sharing information (for example, Friends Reunited). Initially it was thought of as a fad. However, it quickly became established with different players competing for market share and developing different aspects of a well-established market. One ITS application in this market is travel information, where social media has the potential to become the main method by which travellers receive real-time information about travel conditions and options and can provide feedback. When social media first appeared this would have been difficult to predict. The challenge for developers is to identify areas of opportunity - in whatever sector or market they exist – which could offer useful and attractive transport applications. Early candidates for investment need to be evaluated to assess their potential to become a well-established market or product over the lifecycle of a typical ITS project (10-15 years) as illustrated below for clothing and other consumer products.